AUSTIN (KXAN) — The monthly ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) forecast from the Climate Prediction Center was just released and the odds of the climate pattern known as El Niño continue to rise.
We’ve been experiencing our third consecutive winter La Niña, which typically brings warmer and drier weather to Central Texas.
La Niña looks to officially be over with in the next month or two as water temperatures in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific continue to climb.
Sea surface temperature anomalies
La Niña is the cool phase of ENSO when sea surface temperature anomalies in that part of the world are -0.5ºC or colder.
Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño regions (CPC/NOAA)
Once water temperature anomalies enter the -0.5ºC to 0.5ºC range, we head into ENSO Neutral, which is to say that ENSO has no quantifiable impact on our weather anymore.
Consistent signs over the past few months trend us toward the warm phase of ENSO, or El Niño, later this summer or into fall. This trend started late last year, and confidence has been slowly rising toward a switch to El Niño.
El Niño winters typically are colder and wetter here in Central Texas, but can also bring a higher threat for flash flooding to the area.
El Niño weather pattern and storm track (NOAA)
During El Niño the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific reach +0.5ºC or warmer.
The latest ENSO forecast takes us out of La Niña during the February-April period and keep us ENSO Neutral through at least the May-July three-month period. Beyond that, El Niño is favored and continues to gain traction.
ENSO Probability Bars (CPC/NOAA)
By fall 2023, odds of El Niño reach 62%.
Why isn’t confidence higher yet?
ENSO has been notoriously difficult to predict more accurately during the spring months when it comes to impacts the following winter. This is the period when the forecast accuracy from the Climate Prediction Center for ENSO for the months ahead reaches a low.
Until we get through what’s called the “spring predictability barrier,” ENSO outlooks will continue to lack a higher degree of certainty.
In Depth: ENSO alert system
If the odds of El Niño rise, especially beyond spring, then NOAA will activate the ENSO Alert System.
The system is different, but works similarly, to the watch/warning system in place for severe weather etc.
Watch: El Niño or La Niña conditions expected within the next 6 months
Advisory: El Niño or La Niña conditions observed and expected to remain
Final Advisory: El Niño or La Niña conditions have ended
Not Active: Expected to remain ENSO Neutral for the next 6 months.
I would expect the “Final Advisory” on our current La Niña to come out within the next two months.
Stay with the First Warning Weather Team as we track the changes to our weather pattern that will result from the changes to the ENSO climate pattern.