COMPLICATED WEEKEND FORECAST
Why is it complicated? Because today is COLD FRONT DAY. On the plus side, the cold front moving through this morning will make for a much nicer day from start to finish. High temperatures will be 10-20 degrees cooler with much lower humidity to enjoy under a cloudy sky.
On the other hand, it is now less certain how this cold front will behave after today. It will back up as a warm front by tomorrow, then dive back towards the south as a cold front Saturday night. The timing of those movements and the variability of the amount of moisture we’ll have in the atmosphere as a result are making for a very tricky rain forecast for Saturday. Here’s where we stand as of Friday morning.
FRIDAY – As mentioned, it will still be cloudy and gloomy for most of us through the day today, but it will be significantly cooler and drier with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s in the Hill Country to the low and mid-70s elsewhere. Your Friday evening plans look great with just a passing light shower possible on a very isolated basis.
SATURDAY – IT’S ALL ABOUT THE FRONT
After stalling to our south, the cold front is expected to retreat northward as a warm front, then fall back to the south as a cold front sometime during the afternoon and evening hours. That means the amount of moisture in our atmosphere will be in flux, and the timing of those moisture changes is highly uncertain. It will all come down to Saturday afternoon and evening… How much moisture will we have available for our next storm system which moves into Texas on Saturday night? Unfortunately there are now a wide range of answers.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO
In terms of the much-needed rainfall we are hoping for with this next system, the worst-case scenario would be cooler & drier air staying in place for much of the day Saturday and especially Saturday night. That would still bring scattered to widespread rain and storm chances between Saturday evening and early Sunday morning, but the amount of rainfall in the bucket would be minimal and upsetting.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO
If the warm front moves quickly to the north and puts more moisture in our atmosphere before falling back to the south Saturday night, then we could still be looking at beneficial rain totals and even a flooding threat. That would put 1-2” totals with isolated amounts over 3” in the forecast locally, and could even produce a few strong to severe storms.
BOTTOM LINE
If you’re looking for concrete answers, we simply don’t have them yet. We need some more time to see how the front will behave after it stalls in south Texas this afternoon, and we may not have those better answers until Saturday morning.
Trying to plan around these rain chances on Saturday? It’s not a total washout for your daylight plans with just 30-40% coverage of rain and isolated storms through the afternoon. Evening plans could be in jeopardy though as more widespread rain chances settle in around or after sunset.
MUCH COOLER SUNDAY
A few lingering showers around sunrise will give way to a mostly cloudy sky and a much cooler day overall. We’ll wake up to the 50s with highs in just the mid-60s. Enjoy it while it lasts; heat and humidity return by the middle of next week.
STAGE-TWO WATER RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE
Lake Travis is falling with an elevation of 630.58 feet (38% full, 37.5 feet below average)
Lake Buchanan is steady with an elevation of 995.13 feet (47% full, 16.5 feet below average)
Combined storage is still below 900,000 acre-feet. Stage two water restrictions have started and will continue for the foreseeable future. Please conserve water and follow your local watering restrictions