We’re now 26 months into Vladimir Putin’s grad adventure to restore the glory of the Romanov Empire, and it’s time to see how that’s working out for him.
The biggest story of the week is the Senate passing the Ukraine aid package after two months of dithering by the House. The Defense Department had forward positioned the first tranche of weapons, munitions, and equipment to be drawn on the new spending authority in Poland. Within hours of Joe Biden signing the bill into law, the equipment was heading into Ukraine.
Advertisement
In my view, the Russians should have taken away two lessons. First, they can’t rely on alt-right and hard-left social media accounts for political intelligence. Second, Europe, less Germany, seems to have come to the realization that Russia is a threat to Western Europe.
The other shoe waiting to drop is confiscating Russian assets now frozen in the West. Along with the Ukraine aid package, Biden signed into law the REPO Act; other similar legislation is moving along in the EU and Britain. This will happen in some form because it is free money from a trading partner the West no longer trusts, and it will aid in rebuilding Ukraine without burdening taxpayers. Spoiler Alert: no one is going to move their money from the US, EU, and Britain because a rogue regime had its stuff taken away. The same people who claimed the Ukraine aid package would not pass will be shocked again.
BACKGROUND:
Senate Panel Votes to Sic the Repo Man on Frozen Russian Assets
The West Will Make Russia Pay to Rebuild Ukraine and This Is How That Will Happen
Here are some of my past updates.
Putin’s War, Week 112. Ukraine Funding Passes and ATACMS Hit Crimea
Putin’s War, Week 111. Russian Offensive Grounds to a Halt and Ukrainian Refinery Attacks Pause
Putin’s War, Week 109. Russian Offensive Jammed Up While Ukraine Funding Logjam Breaks
Putin’s War, Week 108. Moscow Under Attack and Congress’s Struggles Continue
Putin’s War, Week 105. Sweden Prepares to Be Heard
Putin’s War, Week 104. Second Anniversary of the 72-Hour Special Military Operation
Putin’s War, Week 103. Avdiivka Abandoned
For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.
Politico-Strategic Level
Russian Deputy Defense Minister Arrested for [shocked face] Corruption
Ivanov is the Number Two in the Ministry of Defense. He wasn’t arrested unless very important people wanted him arrested. The stench of his arrest is going to stick to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
What makes this matter more intriguing is that Russian Telegram channels are saying that Ivanov was arrested for espionage.
When the Russians start arresting spies and traitors, things are serious and very dangerous for anyone associated with them.
New Department of Defense Ukraine Support Tranche Announced
The Department of Defense announced Wednesday a $1 billion package of weapons, ammunition, and equipment for Ukraine.
Signed on Wednesday, Delivered on Thursday
Every once in a long while, the Department of Defense acts like it knows what it is doing. Anticipating the passage of the Ukraine foreign aid bill, the Pentagon transferred mentions and equipment to Poland. When Biden signed the bill on Wednesday, equipment was in Ukraine on Thursday.
Patriot Get Repairs
A battle-damaged (see photo #3) Patriot de-planes at Harrisburg, PA. My guess is that it was hit with a Lancet or some other type of suicide drone. It is hard to overstate the value of having priority access to US repair facilities.
Advertisement
Ukrainian Unit With Ukrainian Equipment
I’ve posted on the ongoing efforts to move an existing Ukrainian arms industry to the next level. Domestically produced 155mm self-propelled guns are already in use. Factories are being constructed to build Leopard tanks, Swedish CV-90 IFVs, and some ammunition calibers. The Ukrainian ammunition industry is expanding and retooling to manufacture 155mm artillery ammunition.
BACKGROUND:
Putin’s War, Week 94. Putin Makes Shocker Announcement and the War in Washington Goes Into High Gear
Putin’s War, Week 72. Ukraine Misses NATO Membership but Still Wins and Ground Combat Gains Velocity
This week, Ukraine stood up a mechanized infantry battalion equipped with Ukrainian-made equipment.
This tweet gives a good summary of Ukraine’s contribution to its own defense.
Shadow Units for a Shadow Army
One key Russian propaganda theme that pops up regularly in the comments to these updates is that Russia isn’t even trying hard to win. Why aren’t they? Well, we don’t know, but we do know that if they were trying, they would be winning. Tuesday, Russia announced it was creating a new military headquarters, the 44th Corps, under the newly created Leningrad Military District bureaucracy. This was in response to Finland joining NATO. Ask yourself how reasonable it is that at least 30,000 men and their equipment will sit on their butts on the Finnish/Baltic States frontier while a war is raging in Ukraine. The answer is “not likely at all.” The story supports Russian propaganda themes, and that is what is important.
A Band-Aid on a Sucking Chest Wound
The Russians are going through immense quantities of armored vehicles in Ukraine. I’ve posted about T-55 tanks making a reappearance as assault guns. In this factory, they are rebuilding BMP-1s, which were produced between 1969 and 1983, for service in Ukraine. Some of them had been previously cannibalized for parts. All had been stored outside.
UK Ministry of Defense Video Tells the Story of Putin’s Failed Blockade
When your fleet has been driven from a homeport by a country without a navy, your ability to project naval power is limited.
Terror Attacks Continue
This is why indictments by the International Criminal Court and Interpol Red Notices on Russian political and military leaders are a critical part of bringing this war to a close.
Kremlin Demonizes Speaker Johnson
I posted on the Kremlin’s obvious shock and dismay over Speaker Johnson’s bringing the Ukraine aid bill to a vote. See my post on the subject here: Sad Faces in the Kremlin As the House Sends Ukraine Aid Package to Almost Certain Senate Approval. A few weeks ago, Russian television called him “our Mike Johnson.” No more.
Some of these insults look very familiar. If you find yourself taking the same position and using some of the same language as Russian state media, maybe it is time for a bit of introspection.
Advertisement
Operational Level
Overview
The situation remained largely unchanged from the previous update over the last week. The frontline remained static, with some positional changes.
From December until three weeks ago, the Russians launched several company-sized attacks weekly. That has essentially stopped. The tempo of recorded Russian attacks along the front continues to increase even as the scale of those attacks decreases.
We’ve been watching the Russian offensive at Chasiv Yar for the last two weeks. That seems to have subsided, and in the last week, the Ukrainian Army took back some of the positions it had given up.
The Ukrainian Army suffered a notable reverse at Ocheretyne on the northern edge of the forme Avdiivka Salient. A veteran Ukrainian unit had just been relieved of its sector by a recently formed brigade. The Russians attacked shortly after the relief in place, and the new unit was routed. The Russians advanced for a little over a mile before they ran out of steam and were stopped by the unit heading for a rest. The episode points to a couple of related points. A relief in place is a very dicey maneuver, and the Ukrainian planning and leadership were not up to the task. As I’ve pointed out several times, the Russians have not shown the ability to put together an operationally significant attack since February 2022. What could’ve been an operational penetration was halted because the Russians did not have the follow-on forces or logistics to turn a tactical gain into something bigger.
A tiny blip on the radar appeared west of Krynky in the Ukrainian bridgehead in Occupied Kherson. Suddenly, the Ukrainian lines expanded by about three-fourths of a mile. There have been no claims of an advance by the Ukrainians or mention of a setback by Russian milbloggers. If it is real, something significant is happening there.
Let me grind an axe for a moment. The so-called Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) community on “X” does some good work and has some strengths in identifying equipment and geolocating places from video. Where they really suck is understanding what they are looking at. All of them like to play field marshal and draw arrows. I’m offering this post as an example, not because the account is bad because it isn’t. But this has the hog-staring-at-a-Timex effect going.
Not no, hell no. The road net in that penetration doesn’t support a major operation. Their penetration isn’t wide enough to push support vehicles up it. Unless the enemy forces to the left and right have retreated, you are exposing your flanks to direct fires. You can draw all the broad, sweeping arrows you want on a map, but that isn’t how any of this works.
Long-range ATACMS struck Russian targets that had previously been out of range of Ukrainian fires. At the same time, the Ukrainian military has been mapping Russian radars, and I suspect their GPS jamming sites.
Advertisement
Add to that an increase in the images of Ukrainian strike fighters using AGM-88 HARM missiles, the arrival of British Paveway IV precision-guided weapons, and the imminent arrival of F-16s, and the whole war may become a lot more interesting for Igor.
New Weapons
Paveway IV Precision Guided Munitions
For more details on this weapon, view the video below.
Enter the Turtle
The vulnerability of Russian tanks to basically any attack is well known. As someone funnier than me put it, Russian tanks have more flight hours than the Russian Air Force. One of the ways the Russian Army is trying to increase survivability is the “turtle tank.” No one knows how effective it will be as it hasn’t been tested against top-attack weapons, but the Russians are investing heavily in making the modification.
Long-Range ATACMS in Ukraine
Read the full story at US Long Range Missiles Make Their Combat Debut in Ukraine and Put All Russian Forces Under the Gun.
I, and most other observers, think the ATACMS will be limited to those with cluster munition warheads, restricting their use to targeting vehicles, equipment, and people. The Kerch Strait Bridge is in grave jeopardy if the unitary warhead models are sent.
Failed: Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb
When Ukraine was given the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb in February, there were high hopes that it would provide a weapon that could reach targets beyond the range of HIMARS and MLRS rockets. It didn’t turn out that way.
In the words of Undersecretary Bill LaPlante, “And what happens is, when you send something to people in the fight of their lives, [and] it doesn’t work, they’ll try it three times, and then they just throw it aside. So that’s happened, too.”
As the noted defense analyst Ron White once observed, “That’s good information to have.”
Combat Operations
Ukrainian Long-Range Drone Captured
In a previous update, I posted about the Ukrainians converting single-engine aircraft into drones. One of these has crashed in Russia, and images of what it looks like are emerging. The aircraft is the Aeroprakt A-22 Foxbat microlight, which can be assembled from kits. The post below says it is equipped with an “air bomb,” which I assume means the bomb is fuzed for air burst rather than impact.
BACKGROUND: Putin’s War, Week 110.
Fighter vs. Drone
In this video, a Ukrainian fighter uses an air-to-air missile to knock down a Russian drone, probably an Orlan reconnaissance drone. This underlines the importance of developing a financially viable system for engaging drones. As we’re discovering in the Red Sea, using a million-dollar missile to blast a multi-hundred-dollar drone isn’t sustainable.
Advertisement
The Grand Old Duke of York
Going back to my theme that combat operations by both sides seem more geared toward short raids to produce casualties (hopefully on the other side) rather than to achieve movement on the ground, we have this video. It is a Russian armored attack on Krasnohorivka, southwest of Avdiivka. This has not been the scene of previous large-scale Russian attacks.
There are four vehicles — one tank with a massive cope cage and mine roller and three infantry fighting vehicles. At 0:25, the tank bulls its way through an embankment and railroad track. The vehicles come under artillery fire starting at 0:30, and they cross back across the railroad tracks at 0:35. One IFV is lost before they reach the city. From 1:33 to 2:09, there is a gratuitous ramming of stuff with the vehicles guaranteed to keep Russian chiropractors busy, should they exist. About a half-dozen infantry dismount at 2:21. By 2:23, the tank is withdrawing, followed shortly by the IFV. The dismounted infantry are left to their own devices. The tank is hit by (IMO) an anti-tank weapon at 3:39, and the crew bails out and runs to an IFV (3:48). At 4:29, we see something that I’ve never before encountered in these videos. One of the IFVs hooks a tow cable to the disabled turtle tank and tows it away.
The final count is two IFVs lost and a tank damaged. I don’t think things went all that well for the infantry left behind.
As an aside, if you want to see the direct effect of Biden refusing to use existing budget authority to send artillery ammunition to Ukraine, it is right here. Six months ago, artillery fire would’ve mauled that attack before it got close to the city. The artillery available here is of small caliber and limited quantity.
Motorcycles, You Say?
Last week, I posted about a new Russian assault unit equipped with motorcycles. I was skeptical. Our first videos of this unit show that my skepticism was warranted.
BACKGROUND: Putin’s War, Week 112. Ukraine Funding Passes and ATACMS Hit Crimea
Quality Control Issues
One factor overlooked by many twenty-something “military analysts” when waxing knowledgeable on Russian ammunition is what the product looks like. We can’t see the serial numbers, so we don’t know the production date of this 152mm ammunition, but it is probably 2023 vintage because pre-war stocks have been burned up. Here, the threads of the shell will not accept the fuse. Of course, the threads are messed up because MegaBrain is driving the shipping plugs, which should be screwed out when arming the round into the round. The rounds aren’t properly painted. They have been stored outside (the rust is a clue) and handled roughly (check the scratches). I suspect MegaBrain is hammering the shipping plugs in because they are rust-welded to the threads. Any US Army field artillery battery’s chief of smoke stumbling upon ammunition being handled like this would’ve kicked some asses up between shoulder blades. More interestingly, it looks like the shells were never filled with explosives at the factory.
Advertisement
Russia Loses Strategic BomberD
The Russians lost a Tu-22 strategic bomber to a Ukrainian surface-to-air missile. You can read more details at Russia Loses First Strategic Bomber in Combat Since World War II.
US to Increase Number of “Advisers” in Ukraine
Panties were dampened when this story broke. The full picture is at It’s ‘Vietnam All Over Again’ As Defense Department Prepares to Beef Up Number of US Advisers in Ukraine.
Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures
…Perhaps the Least Preferred Technique
Clearing mines is a hazardous business; unless you have to touch one, you shouldn’t. If you stumble upon a singleton anti-tank mine, consider marking it so others can see it and move on. This is what happens when three Russian soldiers decide to move an anti-tank mine that has been equipped with an anti-handling device.
WARNING! GRAPHIC CONTENT
Caltrops?
The Department of Defense defines caltrops as “four-pronged, heavy gauge steel puncturing spikes that can be thrown or linked together to cause immediate, irreparable, catastrophic failure of pneumatic tires.” They always land with a spike sticking up. These devices have existed at least since Roman times and are making a comeback in Ukraine. They were used defensively during the Russian invasion, and now they are being used to create artillery and FPV kill zones.
Trolling
Ukrainian troops, who seem to be British by the accents, serenade Russians with a loudspeaker during a firefight until it becomes too much, and they get an RPG sent their way at 1:12. The song will be familiar.
Northern Front
Kharkiv
Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna
The situation remains unchanged from my previous update. There is some intense fighting and positional changes, but overall, the frontline is static.
Donbas
Bahkmut-Klishchiivka-Andriivka
The major Russian push on Chasiv Yar seems to have flamed out. Ukrainian Army units have regained some of the ground they lost in the last two weeks, but the rest of the front remains stable.
Avdiivka
As I noted in the introduction to this section, the Ukrainian Army paid the price for crap planning, crap leadership, and crap discipline during a relief-in-place operation. A fresh unit was hit by a Russian attack shortly after taking over a sector. They were routed, and the previous unit counterattacking saved the situation. The situation has stabilized, and quick thinking by the unit leaving the sector and a lack of resources by the Russians combined to save what could’ve been a very ugly situation.
Advertisement
Southern Front
Zaporizhzhia
The situation remains static with positional changes.
Robotyne-Verbove- Novoprokopivka
Kherson
Krynky
Something interesting is happening west of Krynky. Ukrainian lines seem to have extended just over a kilometer west of Kherson. Both sides are, in effect, holding a news blackout.
Rear Areas
Crimea
Insult to Injury
The Ukrainians severely damaged the oldest operational naval vessel in the world. The Kommuna was launched in July 1915 and most recently refitted in 2009.
Russia
More Oil Refineries Hit
What’s Next
Ukraine’s head of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, gave a lengthy interview to BBC Ukraine. He said that Ukraine faces a challenging six months as it mobilizes and trains new troops, prepares defensive positions, and absorbs new equipment. Next year, he says, the initiative will pass back to Ukraine.
I agree with part of his statement and I think part is a strategy for reducing expectations. The furious pace of the Russian offensive effort, absent anything tangible to gain from it, could indicate that the Kremlin sees the initiative slipping away unless it can make significant territorial gains or put a large chunk of the Ukrainian Army out of the war.