I always try to preface any poll story with “It’s a poll, things can change, etc.”
But these latest numbers in the New York Times/Siena Research poll for the battleground states are — as even CNN’s Harry Enten admits — an “absolute disaster” for Joe Biden.
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Why? Look at how far Trump is up in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, as Enten explains, in the head-to-head numbers.
Enten notes Georgia is up for Trump by six, Arizona by nine, and Nevada, “My goodness gracious, my God!” is up by 13.
No Democrat has lost Nevada since John Kerry lost it back in 2004, Enten explains. So that number is something else and even more problematic for Biden, “it looks like a lot of the other polling” out of those areas. In other words, it’s not an outlier.
Then he spoke about Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan where he said Biden has more of a chance. Those numbers have been closer, yet Trump is still up in those states except in Michigan, where Biden is ahead by one point.
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Now, those are likely voters head to head.
If you factor in Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the numbers in some of the states get even bigger, with Nevada going to 14, Georgia to eight, and Pennsylvania to four. It only appears to help Biden in Michigan, going from one up to three up.
Enten said he thought this was because the Trump coalition is changing — that he is pulling in more people who are not white, with 19 percent of his coalition/support now non-white and the Sun Belt states are heavily Hispanic.
Enten then looks at the Electoral College numbers and declares it “Advantage: Donald Trump.” And you can see why Biden is in so much trouble. If you accord Trump the Sun Belt states, Enten puts Trump at 268 to Biden at 225. That would mean if Trump wins any of the other three states where it’s too close to call, he would reach 270.
That’s why Biden has been freaking out over Michigan and his position on Israel — because that could be the race right there. If I’m reading Enten’s numbers right and looking at what Biden needs to have, he would also need to pull down all of those in question: Wisconsin 10, Michigan 15, and Pennsylvania 19, plus Nebraska’s Second Congressional district to get to 270. So he would have to pull off the hat trick, while Trump would only need one.
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Polls have consistently shown Trump ahead in the race for the battleground states. If these numbers are accurate, and Trump can hold them to Election Day, he’s within sight. But it can only happen if people get out and vote.
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