As the 133rd week of Putin’s three-hour tour of Ukraine recedes in the rearview mirror, it is time to stop and take stock of what is happening.
While the frontlines are relatively static, the political scene is not.
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Two major issues are kicking about. One will probably be solved by October 1, and the second will be solved sometime next year.
The close-in fight is over the use of US weapons for deep strikes in Russia. The idea that Russia is allowed to use ballistic missiles to attack purely civilian targets in Ukraine as it prosecutes an illegal war while Ukraine is prohibited from hitting military targets in Russia in self-defense is one of those ideas only an Ivy League education can produce. It seems that the Biden regime is moving toward permitting Ukraine to hit a limited target set, but I think once the taboo is broken, we’ll soon see it go away. If the regime is afraid of “escalation,” I can’t imagine why it would want to be in the position of playing LBJ in the White House basement picking targets for the USAF to hit in North Vietnam.
Congress is on board with the policy change.
The Kremlin believes the decision has been made.
The Kremlin said Wednesday it believes Washington has already given Ukraine approval to strike targets inside Russia using U.S.-supplied long-range rockets.
“All these decisions have most likely already been made, it can be assumed with a high degree of probability,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
“At this point, media outlets are simply carrying out an information campaign to formalize a decision that has already been made,” he claimed.
Putin is out bleating about red lines and consequences.
For easy reference, this is how to interpret Putin’s statement.
Most tellingly, David Sacks had to run home and change into a fresh pair of brown trousers.
The political deep battle is what happens under a new administration. There is a better than 50-50 chance that Harris would run a less competent version of what Biden is doing. A Trump win poses a different set of problems.
Here is JD Vance, who I like on “The Shawn Ryan Show.” I have to confess that I don’t know who Shawn Ryan is when he’s up and got his trousers on, and I don’t have enough interest to find out.
Ukraine wants this war to end. Europe, which, by the way, has underfunded this war while American taxpayers have been very generous to Ukrainians, the Europeans want this war to end because its jacking up their energy prices.
I think what this looks like is Trump sits down, he says to the Russians, the Ukrainians, the Europeans: You guys need to figure out — What does a peaceful settlement look like? And what it probably looks like is the current line of demarcation between Russia and Ukraine, that becomes like a demilitarized zone, it’s heavily fortified so the Russians don’t invade again. Ukraine remains its independent sovereignty, Russia gets a guarantee of neutrality from Ukraine. It doesn’t join NATO, it doesn’t join some of these sort of allied institutions. And I think that’s ultimately what this looks like.
It is hard to imagine a more juvenile proposal. The obvious problem is that neither side in the conflict has any common ground with the other. The idea that the US has the political clout to make this happen is just laughable. The proposal lets Russia walk away from the conflict with all of Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline. It lets Russia off the hook for reparations which have been approved by the UN General Assembly. It strips Ukraine of national sovereignty by forcing it to cede five provinces to Russia and dictating to Ukraine what it can and can’t do. It doesn’t mention how a “demilitarized” zone is going to be imposed on Russia or how, if Ukraine can’t join Western security organizations exclusive of NATO, Russia can be kept from invading again. This plan is basically Vance taking dictation from Sergei Lavrov.
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The plan isn’t workable and certainly won’t have support in Congress or with about 60% of the US voting public.
My hope is that this is just Vance throwing red meat to the “America First” wing of the online Right. If it is actually their foreign policy, then Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal will look Churchillian by comparison.
Here are some of my past updates.
Putin’s War, Week 132. Russia’s Missile Blitz Meets Ukraine’s Drone Blitz – RedState
Putin’s War, Week 128. Russia Invaded – RedState
Putin’s War, Week 127. F-16s Arrive
Putin’s War, Week 125. North Korea Sending Food to Russia Was Not on My Bingo Card
Putin’s War, Week 124. NATO Summit Meets and Putin Levels a Hospital
Putin’s War, Week 122. Zelensky Scores, Putin Flops, and Crimea Under Fire
For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.
Politico-Strategic Level
Erdogan Calls for Russia to Leave Crimea
For the second year in a row, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has used the annual Summit of the International Crimea Platform to call for Russia to withdraw from Crimea; see Putin’s War, Week 78. Prigozhin Crashes, Two Russian Bomber Bases and Moscow Hit by Drones,)
Our support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence is unwavering. The return of Crimea to Ukraine is a requirement of international law.
The Turkish government has consistently held this position since 2020. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated his position.
Russian Bomber Attacks Turkish Operated Merchant Ship
It is hard to interpret this in any way other than a warning to Turkey. Hundreds of merchant ships have moved grain from Ukraine’s Danube ports since the war started. This is the first one to be attacked. And it is Turkish-operated, though flagged in St. Kitts and owned by a company in Belize. This gives Putin a degree of deniability while still sending a message.
Russian Money Buys Weapons for Ukraine
BACKGROUND: G7 Agrees to Confiscate Russian Assets to Fund Reparations For Putin’s War in Ukraine – RedState
Nothing Just Happens
Telegram Milblogger Yegor Guzenko went on a rant about the failures in Ukraine and the traitors in the Kremlin.
He even went said that “Grandpa” (Putin) had “soiled himself.” Guzenko is still posting.
Either Putin’s grip on power has become so weak and feeble that Guzenko feels empowered to do this, or something else is going on that we don’t yet understand. See The Russian ultra-nationalists defying Putin – New Statesman for more details on this growing phenomenon.
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Strelkov Returns
When we last saw Igor Girkin, aka Strelkov, the indicted mastermind of the shootdown of Malaysian Air Flight MH-17, he had just been awarded a four-year sentence for “extremism” in his Telegram posts.
BACKGROUND:
Putin’s War, Week 100. Missing Prisoners, Hungary on the Hotspot, and Shell Hunger Returns
Now he’s back and headed for combat.
Attacks on Ukrainian Civilians Continue
Ukraine Charges Russian General With War Crimes
The head of Russia’s strategic bomber command has been charged with war crimes by the Ukrainians.
Ukrainian authorities on Sept. 10 announced war crime charges in absentia against Russian Lieutenant General Sergey Kobylash over a deadly strike against the Ohkmadyt children’s hospital in Kyiv two months ago.
Russian forces hit Ukraine’s largest children’s medical center on July 8, killing two adults and injuring at least 34 people, including nine children. Footage showed that the building suffered a direct hit by a Russian missile rather than being damaged by fallen debris.
The Russian Energy Minister says Russia has depleted its energy reserves, and the power grid is on the verge of collapse due to a lack of funding and maintenance.
Speaking at an economic forum in Russia’s Vladivostok, Tsivilev said that the electric power reserves that were created during the Soviet era “have been depleted.”
He was responding to a question about how Russia’s Far East will get through the autumn-winter period, and if additional measures were being taken to ensure reliable energy supply this coming winter.
“In order to reduce risks, we have already classified the Far Eastern Federal District subjects as regions with high risks in the electric power industry and are implementing measures to reduce accidents and improve the reliability of thermal generation,” he said.
Political Asylum Awaits
In my Week 130 update, I posted about Russia’s offer of political asylum to disaffected Westerners in search of a country with no extradition treaty and high-class hookers freedom (see Putin’s War, Week 130. White House Says the Quiet Part Out Loud and a Storm Gathers in Southern Ukraine). One of the first takers was Wilmer Puello-Mota, a Massachusetts man on the run from kiddie porn charges. Now a second claimant has emerged.
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As it turns out, Harris is on the run from child rape charges. We’re beginning to see a pattern.
Asylum Urged for Tucker Carlson and Tenet Media Founders
BACKGROUND: DOJ Indictment Alleges a Conservative Media Company Took Millions From Russian State Media
Mmmmkay…
This is a segment from the quasi-official regime television show Vladimir Solovyov.
Operational Level
Oops
In fairness, it happens, just usually not about contemporary pictures from your own country.
US political ad mistakenly shows German troops – BBC News
Trump Tweets Photo of Nazi Troops
Combat Operations
The overall situation remains largely unchanged, which is not to say there isn’t some potential drama developing. The Russians have opened their first offensive operation in Kursk. So far, it consists of pushing into areas formerly occupied by Ukraine that have now been evacuated. In the next week, we’ll have a much better idea of the Ukrainian concept of the operation. At this point, I’m dismissing the Russian advances as they have not been contested.
The Russian offensive in Donetsk remains a potential problem for Ukraine. The Russians are eking out small advances but what is more troubling is the performance of some Ukrainian Army formations.
Russian missile attacks did not reach the scale of those detailed in the last update.
- September 5: 1 missile and 78 Shahed (60 shot down, 17 crashed).
- September 6: 2 missiles and 44 Shahed (27 shot down, 1 crashed).
- September 7: 67 Shahed (58 shot down, 9 crashed).
- September 8: 4 missiles (1 shot down, 3 crashed) and 23 Shahed (15 shot down, 2 crashed).
- September 9: 3 missiles (2 shot down, 1 crashed) and 8 Shahed (6 shot down).
- September 10: 2 missiles and 46 Shahed (44 shot down or crashed).
- September 11: 9 missiles and 25 Shahed (25 shot down or crashed).
The crashes can be either mechanical failures or Ukrainian electronic warfare activity.
The number of combat engagements reported along the main front, excluding Kursk, was less than half the number reported two weeks ago.
More Prisoner Executions
Su-30 Shot Down
A Russian Su-30 attacking Ukrainian oil platforms in the Black Sea was shot down by a Ukrainian MANPADS.
First Recorded Drone-on-Drone Kill
I’ve posted several videos of implied kills by Ukrainian FPV drones of Russian reconnaissance drones. By implied, I mean we have the video from the FPV, but it cuts out at impact, and we’re left with only the assumption that a kill happened. Here we have an FPV drone knocking down a Russian Zala reconnaissance drone (at least I think so, but I’m not going to arm wrestle over it) as recorded from another drone. The attack FPV appears in the upper left corner at 0:01 and executes a steep dive that kills the Zala. From the perspective of this video, I think we can imply that the Ukrainians are using a command-and-control drone with several FPV attack drones under its control.
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Failure to Learn
I’ve posted frequently about how the Russian Army acts like it has been fighting in Ukraine for one day 930 times instead of for 930 days. The Ukrainian Army sometimes shows flashes of the same malady. Here are two burned-out Ukrainian tanks, a Polish PT-91 and a Russian T-72, that were caught by a Russian Lancet FPV drone while reloading ammunition.
It is a symptom of an army that is expanding faster than its leadership can acquire and disseminate operational lessons. Hopefully, it will not turn out to be a symptom of the Ukrainian Army abandoning the idea of a professional NCO corps and reverting to the Soviet model.
Flashes of Soviet Influence
I’ve touched on this before, but it is clear that some Ukrainian leaders are reverting to a way of operating that we associate with the USSR. The area referred to in this story has been problematic since March when the Russians nearly created a breakthrough. Not only are weak leaders not removed, the staff work at battalion and brigade levels sucks.
Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures
Anti-Drone Operations
An FPV harasses two Russian soldiers.
More FPV vs. troops action.
Russian Front
Kursk Oblast
A Russian counterattack on the western flank of the Ukrainian penetration is underway. This is not unexpected. The Ukrainians have been preparing defensive lines to the rear of their limit of advance. We’ll soon see what Ukraine’s intentions are. Will they fight a war of attrition in Kursk and try to hold current lines? Or will they conduct a fighting retreat back to the Ukrainian border?
Even as the Russians are executing a counteroffensive, the Ukrainians have crossed the Russian border in a new place.
HiMARS Strike on Seyn River Pontoon Bridges
Keeping the pontoon bridges closed is a constant struggle.
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This is dashcam video of a DPICM strike on one of the Russian pontoon bridges.
Even with the constant strikes, some Russian reinforcements make it across the river.
But not all.
Northern Front
Kharkiv
Kreminna-Kupyansk-Svatove
Combat continues without measurable progress by either side.
Donbas
Russian operations continue in Donetsk but there were Russian advances in the direction of Pokrovsk, but nothing that appears to indicate the potential of a breakthrough.
There is an obvious area of concern in the top map.
The Russians are making an effort to cut off Ukrainian troops in that salient. This is a rare Russian battalion-sized unit — 46 tanks and armored vehicles plus motorcycles and dismounted infantry — attacking along the south side of the salient. They got mauled.
Given some of the Ukrainians’ misadventures in this area, I would expect to see either a retreat from the salient over the next few weeks or a limited counterattack directed at the north shoulder of the Russian line of advance.
Southern Front
Zaporizhzhia
Robotyne-Verbove- Novoprokopivka
Combat continues, but at a reduced level, the front lines remain stable.
Kherson
The operation tempo in this area has dropped to a very low level. The front lines are stable.
Rear Areas
Crimea
Warehouses, Zavetnyi, Crimea
Russia
Moscow Droned
Allegedly over 20 Ukrainian drones were shot down around Moscow and 144 nationwide on the same night.
Novy Oskol, Belgorod Oblast
Ukrainian partisans demolished a section of the railroad and derailed a locomotive and ten cars.
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Olenya Airbase, Olenegorsk, Murmansk Oblast
Ostrogozhsk Ammunition Depot, Voronezh Oblast
The target at this ammunition dump was a stockpile of North Korean ballistic missiles
Marinkova Airbase, Volgograd Oblast
This is battle damage assessment from the attack covered here Putin’s War, Week 130. White House Says the Quiet Part Out Loud and a Storm Gathers in Southern Ukraine.
What’s Next
Even though I’d rather dress up in a tutu than admit being wrong, I’m seeing a potential Ukrainian offensive in Zaporizhzhia as increasingly remote possibility. Time is running out on the fighting season and even a successful penetration of Russian lines would be difficult to exploit.
It is difficult to tell what is going on in Kursk right now. The Russian counterattack seems to be stalling when it reaches Ukrainian positions. The new Ukrainian counterattack has interesting possibilities as it is moving on an axis that threatens lines of communication with the Russian counterattack.
The most troublesome area is Donbas, particularly the Pokrovsk area, where the Ukrainian military command has to decide to either dig in and hold on at the risk of a catastrophic defeat or withdraw. That danger only exists for another six weeks before the onset of the rasputitsa/bezdorizhzhia brings the 2024 fighting year to a close.