There’s something of a truism in American elections that in states that allow early voting, Democrats are more prone to vote early, while Republicans are more prone to vote on the traditional election day. These opportunities vary from state to state, and we can argue whether this is or is not a good practice, but we can take that up at another time.
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Alaska, by the way, does allow early voting, but the early voting station is 30 miles away and in the rip-roaring big city of Wasilla, so we’re passing; we’ll vote on November 5th at our little local community center that’s only five miles away. But back to that truism: This year, early voting appears to be down from 2020. Is this bad for Democrats? More to the point – is it good for Republicans?
The dramatic rise in early voting has led many to think the election might be effectively over days or weeks before Election Day. The data thus far show that won’t be true — and the numbers aren’t comforting for Democrats.
Early voting is nowhere near what some people estimated: 4.2 million Americans have already cast their ballots, per John Couvillon, a Republican political strategist who provides daily updates on early and mail voting.
That sounds like a lot, but it’s a pittance compared with the 158.6 million votes ultimately cast in 2020.
More important, it’s significantly less than this point in 2020: Early voting is down 45%, Couvillon’s numbers show.
That could be presaging a disaster for Democrats. The most obvious conclusion is that voter enthusiasm is flagging among Democrat voters; with early voting, after all, that lack of the appropriate level of zeal could lead to procrastination: “Oh, I’ll vote tomorrow. Maybe. Or maybe next week.” These aren’t people a pol wants their election depending on, but right now, that may be what they get.
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Meanwhile, there are a fair number of Republicans who would crawl on their bellies through broken glass to vote for Trump, and these folks may be starting to take up the practice of banking their votes.
There’s also an ominous sign from Virginia that Republicans have learned how to play the early-voting game. While early balloting is down overall from 2020, many more votes have been cast in the most Republican congressional districts than in the safe Democratic seats.
A comparison of deeply Democratic, college-educated Northern Virginia with deeply Republican, non-college white areas of rural Virginia paints an even starker picture.
The inner DC suburbs of Arlington and Alexandria each gave Biden more than 80% of the vote, yet the number of early votes cast in each is less than half that counted at the same point four years ago.
That’s not the case in Trump’s best counties. He carried 10 rural counties in the far western part of the state with 80% or more in 2020. They are also 90% or more white and with no more than 24% possessing a four-year college degree.
I’d make a note here that “not having a college degree” doesn’t equate to “not being intelligent.” I’ve got an MBA myself, but one of the smartest people I’ve ever known was my Dad, who had only a high school education and a lot of informal learning; in fact, all of my siblings went no further than high school, and we’re all a pretty smart bunch.
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But in Virginia, it sure looks like Republicans are banking those votes. The RealClearPolitics average from Virginia has Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump, leading by 6.4 points; but if there’s a breakout and Trump takes Virginia on election day, then we may as well all go to bed early, because baby, he’s won. And that trend may well extend past Virginia.
See Related: Swing State Early Voting Data Brings Good News for Trump, GOP
North Carolina State Board of Elections Gives Voters Impacted by Hurricane Helene More Flexibility
Donald Trump has made urging people to vote early a part of his routine stump speech. Is it paying off? Has this pattern changed, and are Republicans more inclined to bank their votes?
As with so many other things, November 5th will tell the tale.