Campaign Context: Democrats appear to be closing the gap in Texas presidential voting

  

With campaign season here, politicians are turning up the volume on campaign rhetoric. To cut through the noise, we’re launching Campaign Context, a series providing clarity on the messages you’re hearing from candidates on the campaign trail. We’re digging past the politics and into the facts to provide you with the transparent, spin-free information you need to make informed decisions.

AUSTIN (KXAN) — It might not happen this election cycle or the next, but Texas appears to be inching closer to seeing a Democrat at the top of the state’s presidential results, furthering the idea of a state transitioning from red to purple.

The most recent polling from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin showed Vice President Kamala Harris with 46% of the vote in Texas compared to former President Donald Trump’s 51%. If that polling becomes reality, that would put Harris on par with President Joe Biden’s finish in Texas, 46% versus Trump’s 52%.

But looking at the last nearly-quarter century of statewide results, Democrats have been making gains in Texas. Biden’s 2020 performance was 3.5 percentage points higher than Sec. Hillary Clinton’s 43% in Texas back in 2016, and Clinton’s performance was 2% better than President Barack Obama’s 41% in 2012.

Obama fared better in Texas in 2008, coming up with 44% against Sen. John McCain’s 56%. Whereas both Sen. John Kerry in 2004 and former Vice President Al Gore in 2000 came up 38% against President George W. Bush.

The last Democrat who came out on top in Texas was Jimmy Carter in 1976.