Nevada is one of the seven swing states on which all eyes are trained as votes are cast and tallied this Election Day, with its small but mighty six electoral votes on the line. It’s also one of the states where early voting seems to have favored Republicans in a big way, with Donald Trump holding a slim lead over Kamala Harris.
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Here’s a recent RedState report:
As of Sunday, the GOP held a four percent lead over Democrats in the number of ballots that had been counted and posted. RealClearPolitics’ polling average has Donald Trump with a slim one percent lead over Kamala Harris, but polling conducted by Atlas Intel on November 1 and 2 showed Trump up by six percentage points.
And here’s how the final early voting numbers broke down:
Election Day turnout will be the key to securing a victory for Donald Trump. He goes into today with a cushion, but day-of voters, especially those in the rural areas of Nevada, need to storm their voting places to keep or expand that cushion.
State of play for the presidential race: No Republican presidential nominee has won Nevada since George W. Bush’s 2004 victory. Joe Biden won in 2020 with +2.39 percent, which closely matched Hillary Clinton’s +2.42 percent win back in 2016.
There’s also a big U.S. Senate election taking place in Nevada, with Republican Sam Brown looking to unseat Democrat incumbent Jacky Rosen. The GOP is looking to take back the seat they lost in 2018, when then-incumbent Dean Heller was defeated by Rosen. The positive early voting numbers in 2024, plus a nice cash infusion from Mitch McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) PAC, are things that benefit Sam Brown going in to Election Day. Here’s what the race looked like following SLF’s investment :
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According to NBC News, “It is the group’s first spending in the state, marking a relatively late entry into the contest, which has been characterized so far by a split between a competitive presidential race and a more comfortable position for Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen in public polling. The Senate Leadership Fund has spent tens of millions of dollars in other Senate battlegrounds in recent months. It’s a sign that Republicans view Rosen’s re-election race as increasingly competitive.”
There’s good reason for McConnell to be pouring money into Nevada, as the 2020 Senate race was won by Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto by a mere 2 points, which translated to fewer than 8,000 votes. Although McConnell is stepping down as the Republicans’ leader in the Senate, he clearly doesn’t plan to go quietly and is determined to return control of the chamber to the GOP. Nabbing Nevada for Republicans would be the icing on the cake for McConnell, as it’s the home state of his late Democrat rival, Harry Reid.
Based on Cortez Masto’s very slim win in 2022, a good performance by Donald Trump may just carry Sam Brown over the finish line and aid the GOP’s efforts to retake the Senate. That doesn’t hinge on Nevada, but it’s a win they’ll happily take.
There’s one hiccup that needs to be talked about: Final election results out of Nevada may take a while. Here’s the timeline:
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Election Night | After the Secretary of State’s Office has confirmed all Nevada polls are closed and the last voter has voted, the first results will be posted on Results.NV.gov.
If you are in line by 7 p.m. [PST] , stay in line. As long as you are in line by 7 p.m. [PST], you will still be allowed to vote regardless of the polling location’s closure time.
The first results will include mail ballots received before Election Day, and early voting in-person results.
Election Day in-person results will be included in subsequent data uploads as counties tabulate and send them to the Secretary of State’s Office.
November 9 | The deadline for county election officials to accept mail ballots postmarked on or before Election Day.
November 12 | The deadline for voters to cure their ballots.
November 15 | Canvass of the general election returns by each county board of commissioners/supervisors.
November 26 | Canvass of the general election returns by the Nevada Supreme Court.
December 17 | The Electoral College meets.
One of the issues is the signature “curing” of ballots required by Nevada law. If questions arise about a signature on a ballot, election officials must contact the voter to verify their identity. This is a time-consuming process that can take days.
There is a scenario in which the presidential election and control of the U.S. Senate hinges on Nevada. It’s likely that we’ll know about the Senate by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, but we could be faced with a drawn-out presidential vote count courtesy of the state of Nevada.
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Polls in Nevada close at 7 p.m. PST. Be sure to join us here at RedState for all of the election results — the fun starts at 7 p.m. EST!