In a closely watched election, Texas Senator Ted Cruz is vying to keep his seat in the Senate, while Democrats hope Representative Colin Allred will flip it.
Democrats have long hoped to flip Texas blue, and Cruz is no stranger to strong competition. His 2018 campaign was one of the hottest races in the U.S., with Cruz beating former Representative Beto O’Rourke by only about 2 points. Polling indicates Cruz could be in an even more vulnerable position this year.
Polls in Texas close at 7 p.m. local time, and results will start to come in soon after.
At the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley on Tuesday, students were shown in a post on X, formerly Twitter, in a long line to vote.
On Tuesday, Texas reached an agreement with the Department of Justice (DOJ) after suing to keep civil rights monitors out of its election centers.
The state’s Attorney General Ken Paxton had gone to federal court in an effort to block DOJ monitors out of eight Texas counties.
A DOJ press release had announced that the monitors would observe compliance with “federal criminal statutes that prohibit voter intimidation and voter suppression based on race, color, national origin or religion” and other civil rights laws.
Paxton w as not among the 51 members of the National Association of Attorneys General who signed a letter on Monday advocating for a peaceful transfer of power and condemning election-related violence.
Paxton, along with his counterparts in Indiana and Montana, were the only three state attorneys general who didn’t sign the letter.
The letter states, “regardless of the outcome of Tuesday’s election,” Americans are expected to honor the peaceful transfer of power, urging citizens to vote and respect the democratic process.”
Elon Musk, a staunch supporter of former President Donald Trump, posted on X, formerly Twitter, that he voted in Cameron County, Texas, where Starbase is headquartered.
Who’s Winning in Pre-Election Day Polls?
Throughout the 2024 campaign, polling has shown Cruz in a tight contest with Allred largely due to Texas’s increasingly purple tilt. According to pre-election polling, Cruz led by a margin of 3-5 points in the final weeks before Election Day, though some surveys suggested the race was even closer.
In an Emerson College poll, Cruz received 48 percent of support from likely voters, and Allred had 47 percent. The poll was conducted between October 18 and 21 and had a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent. A poll from Morning Consult, conducted in the same time frame, also found Cruz had a 1-point lead on his Democratic opponent.
However, a poll from The New York Times and Siena College conducted between October 23 and 26 found Cruz had a stronger 4-point lead. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 3 points.
Cruz’s Democratic opponent, buoyed by significant grassroots support and fundraising, is aiming to replicate the near-upset seen in Cruz’s 2018 re-election bid against O’Rourke, where Cruz won by only 2.6 percentage points.
Sen. Ted Cruz (L) speaks at the U.S. Capitol on July 19, 2023. Rep. Colin Allred (R) in Washington, D.C., on April 2, 2019. The campaign between Cruz and Allred in Texas is expected to be one of the closest in the country.
Anna Moneymaker/Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images
Polling data showed key demographic shifts, with Cruz’s advantage among older, rural voters holding firm while his support in the suburbs of Houston and Dallas saw more erosion. Nevertheless, his strong name recognition and ability to tap into core conservative issues, like border security, opposition to federal spending, and defense of conservative social policies, likely helped him maintain an edge in polling.
Cruz first rose to prominence in 2012 when he won an upset primary victory against then-Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst. His ascension was part of a wave of insurgent, anti-establishment candidates who sought to push the Republican Party further to the right. His uncompromising stance on fiscal conservatism and his battles with both Democrats and Republican leadership defined his early Senate career.
By the time of his first re-election campaign in 2018, Cruz’s position as a firebrand conservative had made him both a polarizing figure and a hero among grassroots Republicans. His narrow victory over O’Rourke in 2018 was a warning sign to Republicans that Texas, long considered a reliable red state, was increasingly competitive. The demographic changes—driven by a growing Latino population, suburban growth, and migration from blue states—have made Texas an ever-increating battleground in subsequent national elections.
After winning the election in 2018, Cruz admitted that it was a hard-fought race, with “millions” of people being inspired by O’Rourke.
“We saw an assault that was unprecedented,” Cruz said in 2018. “We saw a $100 million race with Hollywood coming in against the state, with the national media coming in against the state. But all the money in the world was no match for the good people of Texas and their hard work.”
What Were the Top Issues in the Election?
Cruz’s 2024 campaign reflected his recognition of the changing political dynamics in Texas. While his challenger sought to appeal to moderates and expand the Democratic coalition, Cruz focused on energizing his base, framing the election as a referendum on the Biden administration and Democratic control of Washington. His messaging emphasized opposition to progressive policies like gun control and climate regulations, and he doubled down on issues like border security, which resonates deeply with Texas voters.
A poll from Emerson College released on October 24 found immigration was the top issue for Texas voters, with 31 percent ranking it their number one issue. It was followed by the economy, with 26 percent of voters ranking it as their top concern.
The outcome of Cruz’s 2024 race not only has implications for him but could also have national implications for the Republican Party. His win would further cement his role as a potential leader within the Senate Republican caucus and keep the Senate seat in Republican control.
A loss would give Democrats another seat in the Senate and galvanize Democrats nationwide in the hope of a presidential candidate taking Texas in future elections.
Regardless of the outcome, Texas will remain a symbol of Democratic hopes and Republican resilience. The state will likely remain a key battleground in future elections, particularly as demographic changes reshape its political landscape.
As Texas continues to evolve, both parties will look to build on the lessons of the 2024 race. For Republicans, Cruz’s victory would be a reminder that strong grassroots mobilization and a clear ideological message can still win the day in competitive states.
For Democrats, Allred’s victory would show how Democrats can win after years of investment. A Democratic loss in a close race will prompt them to refine their approach in a state that remains within reach but has yet to flip.
Update: 11/5/2024, 3:53 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with more information.