AUSTIN — Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar of Texas faced his first election Tuesday since his indictment on bribery charges, one of three closely watched races along the U.S.-Mexico border where Republicans are trying to widen inroads in the predominately Hispanic region.
It’s another test for Democrats in a region as election results roll in that has historically been a stronghold and is a recurring backdrop in the national debate over immigration.
The economy, border security, reproductive rights and even the future of U.S. democracy itself have all punctuated the debate for control of the House and Senate.
Just a handful of seats, or as little as one, could tip the balance.
Cuellar and his wife have pleaded not guilty to charges related to the couple’s ties to the former Soviet republic of Azerbaijan. Republicans mounted an aggressive campaign in 2022 to oust Cuellar, one of his party’s most outspoken moderates, but lost by double digits and pulled back in the district this year despite the indictment.
The border House districts are a competitive outlier in Texas, where Republicans have full control of the Legislature and a Democrat has not occupied a statewide office for more than 30 years.
Congressman running under indictment
Cuellar is running against Republican Jay Furman, a political newcomer and Navy veteran who is the incumbent’s first challenger since being indicted on bribery charges in May.
Cuellar and his wife are accused of accepting nearly $600,000 in bribes from an Azerbaijan-controlled energy company and a bank in Mexico. The charges have given Furman room to make his case in the 28th Congressional District, where Cuellar first took office in 2005.
However, the seat has drawn less attention this cycle from the GOP than in 2022, when a multimillion-dollar challenge still ended in a decisive Cuellar victory.
Rematch in new South Texas district
Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz is again trying to fend off a challenge from Democrat Michelle Vallejo after winning by 8 percentage points in 2022.
De La Cruz was the first Republican to win a congressional race in South Texas. The 15th Congressional District was one of two new seats awarded to Texas following the 2020 census, driven by the state’s booming Hispanic population, and was drawn by Republican mapmakers to give them an edge.
Vallejo’s campaign has leaned into protecting Social Security and Medicare, which are popular programs among her primarily Latino and working-class base. De La Cruz has touted her support of tougher border security policies, including those backed by former President Donald Trump.
Republicans hone in on the Rio Grande Valley
Republicans are zeroing in on Democratic Rep Vicente Gonzalez in a rematch with former Rep. Mayra Flores, who Republicans see as a rising star on the southern border.
Of the three border races in Texas, Republicans have thrown most of their muster behind their campaign to unseat Gonzalez, a moderate Democrat who defeated Flores by more than 8 percentage points in 2022.
Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson has campaigned for Flores, who was the first Mexican-born woman elected to Congress and has outraised Gonzalez in a race that is one of the GOP’s biggest targets nationally. Flores previously held the seat after winning a special election earlier in 2022, under a map that was more favorable to Republicans.
Shifts in South Texas
Counties along the Texas-Mexico border made significant swings in 2020 toward Trump. The rightward shift represents a changing political landscape along the U.S.-Mexico border where border security has become a key issue for voters.
Republicans have invested millions of dollars into what were once considered deep blue districts.
Colorado and Boebert
Republican U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert will soon find out whether her political gamble, abruptly switching congressional districts in Colorado mid-election, will cost the GOP or reinforce its position in the U.S. House.
Boebert, a far-right standard-bearer whose following reaches far beyond Colorado, won by only 546 votes in 2022. Facing a rematch against the same, well-funded Democrat in 2024, and suffering a scandal where she was caught on tape vaping and causing a disturbance with a date in a Denver theater, Boebert left the race, saying it would help Republicans retain the seat..
Boebert then joined the race for Colorado’s 4th Congressional District, a more conservative area of the Great Plains, arguing that her voice is still needed in Congress.
Minnesota
Democratic U.S. Rep. Angie Craig is seeking a fourth term in Minnesota’s tightest congressional race, a faceoff against Republican former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab.
And in the race for the open seat being vacated by Democratic U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips, Kelly Morrison, a Democratic former state senator, was favored over retired Washington County District Judge Tad Jude. He’s a Republican who also served both chambers of the state Legislature, where in 1972 at age 20 he became the youngest member ever elected to the House.
Craig and Teirab ran in the 2nd District, which includes a political mix of outer suburbs of Minneapolis and St. Paul south of the Minnesota River, and rural areas farther south that trend Republican. It’s Minnesota’s sole swing district. Morrison and Jude competed in the 3rd District, which includes suburbs surrounding Minneapolis and has gone Democratic in recent elections.
Nebraska
Nebraska voters will elect representatives for the state’s three U.S. House seats Tuesday, and those in the state’s Omaha-centric 2nd District decide one of the country’s most competitive House races.
In a rematch of the 2022 race, Republican incumbent Don Bacon faces a strong challenge from Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas. Recent polls show a tight race in the state’s most demographically and politically diverse district. Both candidates sought to depict themselves as pragmatic problem-solvers who eschew their parties’ partisan fringes.
Races in the district have been very close in recent years. In 2022, Bacon defeated Vargas with 51% of the vote.
Top House races are focused in New York and California, where in a politically unusual twist, Democrats are trying to claw back some of the 10 or so seats where Republicans have made surprising gains in recent years with star lawmakers who helped deliver the party to power.
Other House races are scattered around the country in a sign of how narrow the field has become, with just a couple of dozen seats being seriously challenged.
Vote counting in some races could extend well past Tuesday.