AUSTIN — Texas power grid operator ERCOT’s “worst-case” models show Texas would have a nearly 50% chance of rolling blackouts if hit by winter weather on par with the storm that pummeled the state in December 2022.
The chance of rolling blackouts jumps to nearly 80% if the state experiences a more severe winter barrage on par with the February 2021 storms that caused widespread power outages and killed more than 200 Texans.
The scenarios were analyzed in a resource adequacy report the grid operator published earlier this month.
The numbers are alarming but not surprising given the intensity of the two winter blasts, according to one energy expert.
The probabilistic model is not a forecast, ERCOT said.
Kristi Hobbs, ERCOT’s vice president of system planning and weatherization, said the report represents a “worst-case scenario.”
“You shouldn’t expect something like a Winter Storm Uri where [blackouts] went on for days,” Hobbs said, referring to the 2021 storm. “These would be shorter in duration.”
In 2021, many homes were without power for five consecutive days as the grid operator and local utilities struggled to meet power demands as temperatures remained below freezing.
ERCOT officials said the chance of rolling blackouts has decreased since the 2021 winter storm due to state-mandated power plant weatherization and programs that provide incentives for many power generators to keep backup fuel sources on site.
The modeling also doesn’t account for large industrial-level power users turning off the lights during times of intense electricity demand, ERCOT officials said. High energy prices likely would trigger many large-scale users to shut off power, but ERCOT said it models as if nearly all users kept operating, as required by state law.
This winter, blackouts are most likely during the 8 a.m. hour., a vulnerable time because Texans tend to consume more electricity as they wake up and arrive at work, while solar power production continues to lag due to a lack of direct sunlight.
A different risk assessment in the report showed a 7.12% chance of ERCOT ordering power outages between 8 and 9 a.m. in January.
ERCOT’s report modeled 10,000 scenarios. At the most extreme was a weather event as severe as the 2021 winter storm that could create 96,000 megawatts of power demand, shattering the state’s electricity usage record of 85,508 megawatts.
Austin-based energy expert Doug Lewin said demand that high would not happen if regulators and state lawmakers had prioritized energy efficiency over building new natural gas generation.
“We just still haven’t done the things we need to do,” Lewin said. “It’s the same stuff I’ve been saying for years and years. We haven’t addressed energy efficiency.”
“That puts us at a higher risk,” Lewin added. “If that [power demand projection] was even 1,000 megawatts lower, the risk would drop. And it’s cheap. It’s cost-effective. It’s cheaper than the other solutions that are out there, and it is completely unaddressed.”
Lewin faulted the Public Utility Commission for prioritizing building natural gas power plants over smaller self-sufficient power grids and backup power programs the Legislature funded in 2023. Lawmakers gave electric regulators $5 billion to shore up the grid, which the agency dedicated to a low-interest loan program and cost forgiveness for power plant companies that build new natural gas power plants on the Texas power grid.
While microgrids and backup power systems could have been set up relatively quickly, Lewin said, he doesn’t expect any new natural gas-fueled power plants built under the program to be operating until at least mid-2027.
The natural gas power plant incentive program has faced scrutiny after regulators gave initial approval to a project headed by a woman convicted of a federal crime who appeared to have lied about the project’s association with a major power utility company. Top regulators and lawmakers have called the proposal “fraud.”
The National American Electric Reliability Corp., which sets international regulatory standards for the U.S., Canada and parts of northern Mexico, also warned in a report published this week that ERCOT could face “large energy deficits” if a storm like the 2021 winter freeze hit Texas again.
It recommended Texas interconnect with the U.S. grid, a proposal state Republican leadership has opposed for its likelihood of inviting federal regulation of the ERCOT grid.
According to the report, “the ERCOT system had the most significant energy deficiency and recommendations for increased transfer capability,” and projected energy shortages in a worst-case winter storm that is more than three times higher than any other power grid in the continental U.S.
Lewin said the ERCOT report’s numbers are eye-popping, but he has repeatedly warned that a winter storm similar to what hit Texas in 2021 would be expected to produce similar consequences.
“I say that over and over again,” he said. “I think that they just put out something that’s probably reflective of reality.”