Texas vs. Arizona State live updates: Latest news, predictions, odds and analysis from today’s Peach Bowl

Texas will sweat. Cam Skattebo will knock the Longhorns on their heels slightly, Quinn Ewers will throw an early interception, and Arizona State will get an early lead and the confidence it can hang with the Longhorns. But ultimately, the Sun Devils’ lack of depth will be exposed. The Longhorns’ defense will keep the deficit manageable long enough for Steve Sarkisian to ram the ball down Arizona State’s throat with the run and quick-pass game. Texas will win, but Arizona State will cover and will prove once again that it has been underrated all year long. … Texas 28, Arizona State 20.

ATLANTA — Arizona State is the largest underdog of the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, but the Sun Devils have no intention of being deferential to big, bad Texas.

Sun Devils coach Kenny Dillingham’s team has talked a big game, from Sam Leavitt vowing to prove why he’s a better quarterback than Quinn Ewers to running back Cam Skattebo declaring “there’s nobody out there that can stop me.”

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Arizona State has to find ways to get Cam Skattebo the ball in space and get him one-on-one with linebackers and defensive backs. ASU can win some of those matchups. It isn’t going to win a lot of one-on-ones between the tackles to create space for Skattebo in the traditional running game. Points and yardage are tough to come by for anyone against Texas’ defense, which ranks second nationally in yards per play. ASU has to make the most of what it has.

Texas has more weapons on offense right now, and I have liked what it has done on defense throughout the whole of the season. Arizona State will ride Cam Skattebo as expected, but the loss of Jordyn Tyson will be too much for ASU to overcome. I like Texas to win by at least two scores and advance. … Texas 31, Arizona State 14.

This game feels like it could follow a script similar to the 2023 Big 12 Championship Game when Texas blew by Oklahoma State. That Cowboys team also had a running back who was in the Heisman Trophy discussion — Ollie Gordon — and the Longhorns suffocated him to the tune of 34 yards on 13 carries. This Texas run defense isn’t quite to the level of last year’s, but it’s close, as only two players this season have rushed for more than 100 yards in a game against the Longhorns. If Texas keeps Cam Skattebo quiet early, Texas could run away with it. … Texas 42, Arizona State 17.

Quintrevion Wisner, Jaydon Blue and Jerrick Gibson all had some success against Clemson, and I expect all three to get carries against Arizona State. Keeping the running backs fresh and rotating them throughout the game should help Steve Sarkisian’s offense have a home run threat on the field at all times. Also, Arizona State will have to worry about Arch Manning coming in for some designed QB runs.

Before leaving for Atlanta, Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt said he planned to prove Wednesday that he’s the best QB in this game. Bulletin-board material? That might be strong, but the statement – from a redshirt freshman nonetheless – got national attention. A Freshman All-America by The Athletic, Leavitt has said similar things throughout the season. It’s how he’s wired, always looking for an edge. To his credit, Leavitt didn’t back off his statement when asked Monday. “I hope that every player on the field feels that they’re the best,” he said. Quarterbacks are always under the microscope but a lot of people will be watching Leavitt to see if he can back up his words.

Texas’ defensive line against Arizona State’s offensive line. The Sun Devils have allowed pressure on 33.3 percent of their pass-blocking snaps this season, per Pro Football Focus. That ranks 93rd in the FBS. Texas is one of the best teams in the country at generating pressure, ranking 23rd nationally by applying pressure on 35 percent of opponents’ dropbacks.

If the athletic Longhorns’ front gets going early, it’ll be difficult for Arizona State to generate the explosive plays it needs to win. But if the Sun Devils can handle the Texas pass rush, it gives them a chance to hang around in this game.

Arizona State has made a lot of smart people look foolish. Even late in the season, as the Sun Devils started to get hot, a run to the CFP didn’t seem possible. Yet, here they are. But this is not a great matchup for them. Texas is talented enough defensively to limit Cam Skattebo and control the line of scrimmage. The Longhorns look like a team with unfinished business. For the Sun Devils, a dream season comes to an end. … Texas 34, Arizona State 16.

If the Longhorns don’t lose the turnover battle by at least two and don’t give up easy points or rare busts in the secondary, Arizona State has no shot to win this game. The Longhorns have a better, more complete team that has faced much tougher tests this season. If they lose, they’ll mostly have themselves to blame.

TEMPE, Ariz. — Last summer, in the weeks leading up to the regular season, Arizona State center Leif Fautanu sat next to head coach Kenny Dillingham on a team bus. As Fautanu recalled, the Sun Devils were on their way to play paintball, a team-bonding activity.

For some reason, the conversation turned to artificial intelligence. “Leif, watch me write this song about ASU,” Dillingham said. Fautanu looked on as Dillingham typed into his cell phone: “Write a song about the Arizona State Sun Devils winning the Big 12.”

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No doubt, Arizona State will need to establish Cam Skattebo. But before this contest even kicks off, the Sun Devils will need to settle their nerves. This is nothing new for Texas. The Longhorns played in last year’s CFP. They’ve already advanced in this season’s event. Arizona State? The Sun Devils haven’t played on a stage this big in decades. Complicating matters, they haven’t played in 25 days. It’s a difficult game to come in cold. Arizona State cannot afford to start slowly and fall behind by a couple of touchdowns. They need to embrace the moment, yet crush their nerves as quickly as possible. –Haller

Texas’ running game dominated against Clemson, and it will need to do the same today against Arizona State. If the Longhorns’ running backs have another big game, watch out. That frees up everything in the Texas offense.

The matchups between the Texas wideouts against the Arizona State secondary will be a good one. Texas has several players who can fly (Matthew Golden, Ryan Wingo and Isaiah Bond) while ASU has several defensive backs who are not afraid to cover or tackle (Myles Rowser, Xavion Alford, Shamari Simmons and Keith Abney II). A key for ASU’s defenders will be to not let the Longhorns receivers get behind them. If the Sun Devils can do that for most of the game, I believe they will be in good shape.