AUSTIN (KXAN) — Texas, like other teams, is anxiously awaiting for its name to be called on Selection Sunday. The Longhorns will either celebrate or wonder what could have been when the NCAA Tournament selection committee reveals their picks.
Dan Gavitt, the NCAA’s vice president of basketball operations, told CBS that the committee had almost completed selecting its at-large teams by Saturday afternoon. Texas turned in its resume after the loss to Tennessee in the Southeastern Conference tournament quarterfinals, and they are a curious case.
2024 Texas vs. this year’s team
Looking at last season, the Longhorns finished 21-13 overall and 9-9 in their final Big 12 Conference season. An opening-round loss in the Big 12 tournament didn’t hurt their selection odds, and as head coach Rodney Terry pointed out in a press conference following the loss Friday to the Volunteers, his squad has seven Quad 1 wins this year, two more than last season when they were awarded a No. 7 seed. Texas beat Colorado State in the first round before losing to Tennessee in the second round.
Texas was 5-9 in Quad 1 games and 3-2 in Quad 2 games last season for a combined 8-11 record. They were one of eight Big 12 teams in the tournament, a conference record, and tied for the most with the SEC. They also had a Quad 3 loss sprinkled in, which is not typically something a tournament team wants to have on their resume, but they still made the field.
The committee had an easier decision last year to comfortably put them in the tournament since they finished with an even 9-9 Big 12 record and a NET ranking of No. 30. Even though the SEC could put upwards of 13 or 14 teams in the tournament this season, a 6-12 conference mark and a NET ranking of No. 39 is a tougher sell.
Last year’s team also had much better advanced metrics. Along with the better NET ranking, Texas was better in wins above bubble, power rating and elo rating according to BartTorvik.com. Texas’ nonconference schedule last season was also better. Last season, the Longhorns’ nonconference strength of schedule rating was No. 136. This season, it’s at No. 217 and their best win was over North Carolina State who has a NET ranking of No. 139. Texas played the two worst teams in the country this season by their NET rankings, Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Mississippi Valley State. It’s a good thing they won those games.
What this year’s team has going for them is the strength of the SEC. It has, without a doubt, been the toughest conference in the country. Perhaps the committee thinks six wins in this year’s SEC is enough to get in the tournament. Two of Texas’ seven Quad 1 wins this year came by beating Vanderbilt and Texas A&M in the SEC tournament. The Longhorns are 10-15 across Quad 1 and Quad 2 games this season.
Texas is finally healthy
After Chendall Weaver returned to the lineup before the SEC tournament from a hip injury that kept him out about a month, Texas has played better. Weaver helps create extra possessions with his high-energy, maximum-effort style of play that energizes the rest of the team. He tweaked his ankle during the game against the Vols but returned, and Terry said Weaver is “the toughest guy we have in the locker room.”
With Weaver back in the mix and the scoring prowess of freshmen Tre Johnson, Terry said his team would be a tough out for anybody.
“We’re a team that would be a dangerous matchup in the tournament,” he said Friday. “We’re finally healthy, have our full allotment of guys, and we’re playing pretty good at the right time of year. We’ve got a guy (Johnson) who could explode for 30 points in a tournement setting, so you’re always nervous about that.”
Tramon Mark has elevated his play as of late, scoring in double figures four of the Texas’ last five games. Texas needs that second scoring threat to make a run if they are selected for the NCAA Tournament.
What are the ‘bracketologists’ saying about Texas?
Bracket projectors Joe Lunardi from ESPN and FOX Sports’ Mike DeCourcy disagree on the Longhorns’ tournament fate.
Lunardi thinks, at least at this moment, that the Longhorns will just miss the field. DeCourcy thinks the Longhorns barely make it in and play in the First Four play-in round.
Both “bracketologists” are plugged in to what the committee looks for and how they apply the data to picking the field, but in the end, it’s still essentially a guessing game. The only people who know for sure are the committee members themselves until CBS reveals the picks at 5 p.m. CDT Sunday.
Jerry Palm at CBS is on Lunardi’s side and doesn’t think Texas gets in. BartTorvik.com has the Longhorns with a 53.8% chance of making the field while ESPN Analytics put their chances at 63%.
