BEAUMONT — Minutes after declaring victory in a bruising primary runoff, Dade Phelan confidently predicted that he would be reelected as the speaker of the Texas House in next year’s legislative session.
“I’ve done it twice,” Phelan said as music blared at his election night watch party. “I’ll do it a third time.”
Opposition quickly arose to Phelan’s quest for a third term leading the Texas House.
Attorney General Ken Paxton issued a pointed threat to his fellow Republicans in the House shortly after Phelan celebrated his 1.4 percentage point runoff victory over David Covey.
“My message to Austin is clear: to those considering supporting Dade Phelan as speaker in 2025, ask your 15 colleagues who lost reelection how they feel about their decision now,” Paxton said in a statement. “You will not return if you vote for Dade Phelan again.”
My message to Austin is clear: to those considering supporting Dade Phelan as Speaker in 2025, ask your 15 colleagues who lost re-election how they feel about their decision now. You will not return if you vote for Dade Phelan again! pic.twitter.com/AkEX9eqUvk
— Attorney General Ken Paxton (@KenPaxtonTX)
Phelan, with no Democratic opponent in the Nov. 5 general election, is ready to pivot toward the January contest when the 150 members of the Texas House kick off the 2025 session by choosing a speaker. One opponent has already announced a bid to lead the House, saying the conservative Republican majority is demanding a new speaker.
Other speaker candidates may follow.
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Paxton, who both endorsed Covey, said an insufficiently conservative Phelan was responsible for killing GOP priority bills and for putting the conservative agenda at risk by appointing Democrats to some leadership positions. His vote to impeach Paxton last year didn’t help.
“The jig is up now, we know who he is,” Patrick told radio host Mark Davis on Wednesday. “We will be on his butt.”
Phelan’s top allies in the House are pushing back on the idea of a new Texas speaker.
State Rep. Cole Hefner, R-Mt. Pleasant, predicted Phelan would return as speaker. In the two sessions Phelan has overseen the House, some of the most conservative bills in the state’s history have passed – from abortion restrictions in 2021 to a hard-line immigration bill last year, he said.
“We’re supposed to be about results,” Hefner told The Dallas Morning News. “When a speaker comes in and we’ve got these legacy conservative issues that we have worked on passing for the last 30 years, and we pass those, that person deserves to keep the job and keep that momentum going forward.”
In March, weeks after Phelan was forced into a runoff after finishing second to Covey in the Republican primary, Rep. Tom Oliverson, R-Cypress, announced he would run for speaker.
On Wednesday, Oliverson said he intends to take that fight all the way to the House floor in 2025.
“My campaign for Speaker moves to the next level today,” he said in a statement. “I will ensure that Republican members will have the opportunity to declare their preference and cast their vote for the status quo or a new direction.”
Oliverson, appointed by Phelan to be chair of the House Insurance Committee, has committed to ending the practice of naming Democrats to lead some committees.
Oliverson did not respond to a phone call or text message Wednesday. Phelan’s campaign did not respond to an email seeking comment on Oliverson’s announcement.
All 150 House members vote to select the speaker at the beginning of each regular session, with at least 76 votes needed to prevail. Republicans currently outnumber Democrats 86-64.
In recent legislative sessions, Republicans have held a secret-ballot election to determine which lawmaker has the support of the majority of the GOP caucus.
Some of the most conservative members of the House called for a nomination process that would not allow a speaker candidate to prevail with a small number of Republican votes bolstered by Democrats.
Before the 2023 legislative session, GOP Rep. Tony Tinderholt of Arlington challenged Phelan as speaker. In the Republican caucus vote, Phelan defeated Tinderholt 78-6.
Patrick, speaking to Davis, said the Republican caucus should select the next speaker.
“It should be like when you pick a pope,” Patrick said. “The Republicans should go to caucus and whoever gets 76 (votes) is the speaker.”
Patrick predicted Phelan would not return as speaker.
Turnover in the House is adding a measure of uncertainty to next year’s race for speaker. Between retirements and primary defeats, the House could see 24 new Republicans.
“For some of them it’s pretty clear. Those candidates were supported directly by Ken Paxton and Dan Patrick and come from both a personal orientation, as well as an activist position, where they’re anti-Phelan,” said Rice political scientist Mark Jones.
State Rep. Jared Patterson, R-Frisco, attended Phelan’s watch party and believes Phelan will return as speaker. He urged House freshmen to make an informed decision with their vote for speaker.
“Go meet the man and talk to him and figure out where you want to be on this issue,” Patterson said. “I would do it through personal experience and not through what some third-party group made up about the man.”
State Rep. Brian Harrison, R-Midlothian, supported Covey and said he would not vote for Phelan to return as speaker.
“Dade Phelan and his failed liberal leadership team have betrayed the voters of the state of Texas for too long, and they have forfeited their authority to govern,” Harrison said Wednesday in a phone interview. “It’s not what the voters of Texas want. It’s definitely not what my constituents want.”
Most Democrats are taking a wait-and-see approach to the speaker’s race.
“As a caucus we should talk about which way to go and not seek personal advancement by bartering your vote and getting nothing in return from a policy standpoint,” said state Rep. John Bryant, D-Dallas, who has been texting and emailing House Democrats urging them to wait before committing to Phelan or other candidates.
Bryant said Phelan has to get 76 votes within his 86-member caucus to win the speakership.
“We hope it’ll be less than that, and to what extent he has determined he has to turn to Democrats for support for reelection as speaker is critical,” Bryant said.
State Rep. Chris Turner, D-Grand Prairie, said he hoped Democrats would unite to protect their standing in the House, where they are in the minority.
“I don’t think Democrats are going to be interested in any candidate for speakers talking about shutting out Democrats in the legislative process, which seems to be some of the chatter from the far right of the Republican Party right now,” Turner said.
Democrats, he added, should focus on getting concessions for more funding into public education and solutions to get more Texans affordable health insurance.
State Rep. Rhetta Andrews Bowers, D-Rowlett, said she worried that some Democrats made commitments to a speaker candidate and the end of last year’s session, which generally occurs in legislative politics.
“We need to keep our powder dry,” she said. “We don’t even know the outcome of the general election and what the final makeup of the House will look like.”
Democratic strategist Matt Angle isn’t sure Phelan will get reelected speaker.
“I don’t see a circumstance in which Democrats come together and unite around him along with a handful of Phelan loyalists and the Republicans in order for him to survive,” Angle said, adding that he didn’t think Phelan would make that kind of deal.
“The only Republican that’s likely to reach out to them and offer them something is Phelan, but it’s really tricky for him because every time he reaches out with one hand to the Democrats, the Republicans are coming in to kind of cut off the other arm,” Angle said.