After several months of a Joe Biden-style basement campaign where media interviews and public appearances were severely limited while the Very Online Left did his bidding for him, it seemed like Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nominee John Fetterman would coast into Election Day with the wind at his back, poised for an easy victory. Early on, his Republican opponent Dr. Mehmet Oz seemed to be willing to go along with the narrative that Fetterman, who suffered a stroke in May shortly before the primary, should be treated with kid gloves.
But when Fetterman finally started going out in public, giving speeches and the occasional interview, the tide slowly started to shift. The questions about his health, even from a normally Democrat-compliant press, began to blow up – and neither he nor his campaign were prepared or willing to release detailed medical information that would give voters greater insight as to how he was doing and his projected future progress, leaving many feeling like he was trying to hide something.
And to his credit, Oz began hitting back at Fetterman’s swipes and hard, perhaps realizing that the only way you can win in a bruising state like Pennsylvania is to put every bit of it all out there on the table and let the chips fall where they may.
The result was repeated challenges from Oz to Fetterman to a debate, which Fetterman finally agreed to do – as long as it was late in the campaign and well after many had already voted.
Well, the debate happened, and as we all know, Fetterman had a disastrous performance. The result has been a clear momentum shift in Oz’s direction, as the two most recent polls taken in this race indicate:
“Half of Voters Say Senate Debate Worsened Their Opinion of Fetterman,” Emerson noted in their write-up.
“The poll marks a steady improvement for Oz, whose support has increased by 5 points since September. Fetterman’s support has only ticked up by 1 point,” The Hill reported.
And in another one, Oz surged ahead of Fetterman in a five percent reversal from their previous polling on the race:
Susquehanna noted in a later tweet that “Oz is winning voters with most education, while Fetterman is appealing to working class voters. It’s the reverse of Trump effect, but is helping Oz in vote rich Phila suburbs.”
To be fair, Fetterman led in the two polls prior to the ones noted above, but prior to that one Oz pulled ahead by three and another showed a tie. So this, in my opinion, is undeniable evidence that Oz has the clear edge heading into next Tuesday.
Polling averages from RealClearPolitics in graph form tell the story of how much this race has tightened the closer we’ve gotten to Election Day:
As they say, it ain’t over til it’s over, but Oz has got to be feeling pretty optimistic right about now, especially considering how his numbers looked over the summer.