After the House passed a bill that would send $61 billion in aid to Ukraine and $26 billion to Israel, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) appears to be fighting for his position as the top bespectacled dog in the lower chamber.
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Johnson has managed to anger the conservative faction of House Republicans on multiple occasions, not only supporting more taxpayer funding of other countries but also casting the tiebreaking vote against an amendment to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) that would allow federal agencies to conduct surveillance on American citizens without a warrant.
His recent moves came after Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) and Thomas Massie (R-KY) threatened to follow through with a motion to vacate to remove him from his position in a similar initiative that was successfully launched against former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. But there is reason to believe that if Greene and Massie undertake this effort, it probably won’t turn out as it did for McCarthy.
There could be one insurmountable obstacle standing in their way: House Democrats.
Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC), during an interview on MSNBC, suggested that he might be “inclined” to support Johnson if Greene and Company try to remove him as Speaker.
Host Michael Steele discussed attacks against Johnson coming from his colleagues because of the foreign aid issue, saying that because he “is doing the right thing,” he “may pay a political price within his own caucus for it.”
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Steele asked: “How are Democrats assessing the politics of this moment?”
Clyburn replied:
“I think we’ll have to wait and see. If this is an evolution rather than the revolution, then I’m inclined to be supportive, though I’m going to follow the leadership of Hakim Jeffrey. He’s in the room. I’m not in those rooms anymore, and I will talk with him or continue to talk with him to see exactly how we ought to conduct ourselves. But let me say this. After this vote is over today, I’m interested in seeing how the speaker reacts to the votes. If you recall, what got Kevin McCarthy in trouble was the way he reacted to the votes.”
That last line was a reference to rhetoric McCarthy used against Democrats, saying that they are “a threat to democracy.”
It is not 100 percent evident how Democrats will respond if Greene pulls the trigger on the motion to vacate. But if Clyburn’s sentiments are shared by a sufficient number of Democrats, then the effort to oust Johnson will be dead in the water. After all, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) had to collaborate with Democrats to remove McCarthy. Without Democrats’ support, McCarthy would still be Speaker.
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The fact that Johnson was willing to work with Democrats to pass the foreign aid bills could signal that they would reciprocate by helping him keep his seat for strategic purposes. The chances of Greene garnering enough support among Republicans to counteract Democrats are about as promising as Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) renouncing antisemitism.
Right now, Democrats appear to be playing it close to the vest, watching to see what unfolds among House Republicans. But, if Democrats do save Johnson’s position, they might also be doing Republicans a favor by preventing them from making the mistake of dragging the nation through yet another circus effort to seat a new speaker. Either way, it might be time to invest in some popcorn.