Beryl Live Updates: Over a Million in Texas Under a Hurricane Warning

But with Beryl forecast to head north and then east after making landfall along the central part of the Texas coast, that means rainfall is likely for only areas that are not in need of it, the drought monitor shows.

“Whenever we kind of miss out with one of these systems, where it doesn’t go into the area we wish it would go into, it just prolongs the agony of drought in the areas that really need water right now,” said Paul Yura, a meteorologist at the Austin-San Antonio office of the National Weather Service.

Texas generally relies on “tropical activity” for summertime rainfall, Mr. Yura said. And storms this year have already helped improve the drought outlook.

Last month, Tropical Storm Alberto brought rain to South Texas after making landfall in Mexico. Rains from that storm helped bring down the percentage of the state in drought from 30 percent to 25 percent. And before Alberto, an unusually wet first five months of the year helped the state’s drought outlook.

Last year was the hottest in Texas since at least 1895, and by last September, 86 percent of the state was in drought, according to the Texas Water Development Board. The state’s driest year on record was 2011, when almost all of its land — 99.96 percent — was experiencing drought in late September.

The picture today is highly regionalized, Mr. Yura said, with drought concentrated in West and South Central Texas. And nowhere in the state is facing as extreme conditions as those in 2011, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

“Although the trajectory now may indicate that it is more focused on the Texas side, we ask not to be careless and not to let our guard down,” Héctor Joel Villegas González, the state’s government secretary, said in a news conference on Saturday. “Natural phenomena have no word of honor.”

Earlier in the week, officials in Tamaulipas set up temporary shelters, monitored dams, identified areas vulnerable to landslides and took steps to prevent potential flooding and road blockades — such as clearing the drainage and pruning trees.

Some people were heeding the authorities’ advice. René Aguirre Garza, who coordinates a residential neighborhood in Matamoros that has previously been affected by flooding, said some of his neighbors were placing sand bags around their houses and cleaning their streets.

Others were more carefree. Despite officials warning residents not to visit popular beaches facing the Gulf of Mexico, some beachgoers enjoyed the sun and the waves.

On Saturday, tourists, vendors and fishers strolled along Bagdad Beach in the municipality of Matamoros, unconcerned by the incoming storm. A few officials were urging people to go home, but residents replied that nothing would happen as Beryl was already moving north.

“We’ll see what happens,” said Francisco Gabriel Ponce Lara, a rescue coordinator with the Matamoros Red Cross. “As far as I know, we are only going to get about eight inches of rainfall.”

Just like it was no secret that Beryl would bring some much-needed rain to Texas, authorities in Tamaulipas also hoped the storm and the hurricane season would help end — at least temporarily — a historic and brutal drought in the state.

In May, before Tropical Storm Alberto drenched the northeastern coast of Mexico, about 97.7 percent of Tamaulipas was suffering from some degree of drought, according to the country’s meteorological service. In its latest report on Friday, the agency said that number had dropped to 16.3 percent.

“Water for our state has been a blessing because the dams have been empty,” Mr. Villegas González told reporters on Saturday, adding that a system of lagoons that provides water to thousands of locals “has recovered.”

According to the National Hurricane Center, a tropical storm warning was in effect on Sunday morning for the northeastern coast of Mexico.

Edyra Espriella contributed reporting from Matamoros, Mexico.

“This early-season storm activity is breaking records that were set in 1933 and 2005, two of the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record,” said Philip Klotzbach, an expert in seasonal hurricane forecasts at Colorado State University.

Last fall, a study in the journal Scientific Reports found that Atlantic hurricanes from 2001 to 2020 were twice as likely to grow from a weaker storm into a hurricane of Category 3 or higher within 24 hours than they were from 1971 to 1990. The study added to a growing body of evidence that rapidly developing major hurricanes were becoming more likely.

Andra Garner, an assistant professor of environmental science at Rowan University in New Jersey and the author of the paper, called the findings an “urgent warning.”

A hurricane that intensifies faster can be more dangerous, as it allows less time for people in areas projected to be affected to prepare and evacuate. Late last October, Hurricane Otis moved up by multiple categories in just one day before slamming into Acapulco, Mexico, as a Category 5 hurricane that killed at least 52 people.

In Beryl’s case, it became a tropical storm late June 28, meaning it had sustained wind speeds of more than 39 miles per hour. The next afternoon, it became the season’s first hurricane, a Category 1, with wind speeds of 75 m.p.h. The morning after that, it became the earliest Category 4 hurricane on record, with wind speeds of more than 130 m.p.h.

And on July 1, after it had devastated Carriacou, a small island north of Grenada, Beryl became a Category 5 hurricane, with wind speeds of more than 160 m.p.h. It has since weakened to a tropical storm, but it is expected to intensify again before making another landfall in Texas as a Category 1 hurricane.

It is no surprise to meteorologists that Beryl was able to strengthen so quickly and behave more like a peak-season storm. Hurricanes suck up warm ocean water and use it as fuel. In an optimal weather environment like this past weekend’s, the ample heat energy rapidly increases the storm’s intensity.

Abundantly warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean have been a concern since last season’s overly active year. On June 28, Beryl formed around ocean temperatures that were warmer than they were this time last year, and are more akin to what they typically would be during the peak of hurricane season, in September. Normally, early-season activity is limited in this portion of the Atlantic because those ocean temperatures are relatively cool.

But now they are hot. That helped Beryl strengthen into the earliest Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic, according to Dr. Klotzbach. Previously, Hurricane Emily held the record for the earliest Category 5 hurricane, reaching that strength on July 16, 2005.

Because of the ocean’s heat, Beryl formed farther east in the Atlantic than any storm has in the month of June, breaking a record set by an unnamed storm formed east of the Caribbean on June 24, 1933.

The warm ocean temperature is one of the main reasons experts have been predicting an extremely active hurricane season this year. It is also why forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, who predict there will be 8 to 13 hurricanes this season, believe about half of those will reach major hurricane status, as Beryl did this weekend.

Usually, early-season activity doesn’t have much bearing on the rest of the season’s activity. But, in June, when that activity occurs as far east as Beryl did, Dr. Klotzbach says, “it tends to be a harbinger of a very busy season.”

Here are some notables ones. The death toll associated with each hurricane can vary widely in some cases, depending on the reporting authority and the criteria used to determine whether a death was caused by the storm.

Hurricane Harvey (2017)

Hurricane Harvey made a late-night landfall on the Texas coast near Rockport on Aug. 25, 2017, as a Category 4 hurricane. It was strongest storm to hit Texas since Hurricane Carla struck as a Category 4 in 1961.

Harvey unleashed dozens of tornadoes and brought severe flooding to Harris County and surrounding communities, swelling rivers to record levels and turning vast stretches of roads and buildings into a muddy sea, according to the National Weather Service.

At least 68 people died in Texas, according to the Weather Service.

Hurricane Ike (2008)

Ike reached its peak intensity as a Category 4 hurricane over the Caribbean before weakening to a Category 2 hurricane on Sept. 13, 2008, as it made landfall in the upper coast of Texas.

The storm was characterized by the significant storm surge it produced, roughly between 15 and 20 feet high along the Galveston shores, according to the Weather Service.

The deaths of least 28 people are attributed to Ike, according to the Weather Service. Other agencies, such as the Texas General Land Office, place the death toll at 74.

Hurricane Rita (2005)

Rita arrived on the shores of Texas and Louisiana as a Category 3 hurricane on Sept. 24, 2005. The storm’s intensity peaked at Category 5 as it moved over the Gulf of Mexico.

Striking less than a month after Hurricane Katrina, it prompted mass evacuations and killed at least seven people, according to the Weather Service. Other counts put the number of dead at more than 100.

Galveston Hurricane (1900)

A Category 4 storm landed on the Texas shore south of Galveston on Sept. 8, 1900, swallowing Galveston Island, according to the Weather Service.

The storm was the deadliest weather-related disaster in the history of the United States at the time, claiming at least 6,000 lives and as many as 12,000 by some estimates.

The research comes just after Hurricane Beryl broke records as the earliest Category 4 and 5 storm to form in the Atlantic Ocean. The storm flattened islands in the Caribbean, killed at least eight people and left vulnerable island communities in shambles. On Friday, it made landfall on the Yucatán Peninsula and its projected path suggests it could hit northern Mexico and the Gulf Coast of Texas this weekend.

“These hurricanes can cause really devastating power outages,” said Julian Rice, a data scientist at the national laboratory who helped develop the map. Those outages can have subsequent effects, he said, like reducing access to health care and cutting off power used to heat and cool homes.

The researchers used computer s to model almost one million hurricanes under simulated climate scenarios. The models projected factors like humidity, wind and sea surface temperatures under various potential global warming situations between 2066 and 2100.

The Pacific Northwest team then partnered with the power research institute, a nonprofit group focused on electricity research, to pair these mock hurricanes with a power outage model that trained on outage data from 23 hurricanes that affected the United States over the last decade.

The projections suggest that increasingly stronger and wetter storms, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, will make landfall more frequently and push further inland, with tangible effects on the grid. In these scenarios, increased rainfall clogs soil and weighs down tree canopies. Trees can easily uproot or become unstable, falling on power lines or causing landslides that knock out electric infrastructure.

The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastal areas are predicted to see the zone of potential climate-driven storms and hurricanes shift upward, exposing them more often to the risk of outages. The average person in the metropolitan areas of Boston, Houston and New Orleans could see expected outage events increase more than 70 percent per decade, the analysis found. In Tampa, it’s even higher, and in Miami, residents could see a 119 percent increase.

Hurricanes get a lot of attention from utility companies along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, said Andrea Staid, research leader in energy systems and climate analysis at the Electric Power Research Institute, who helped author the study.

But the analysis could help energy companies plan future improvements, she said. “It motivates them even more because it shows what can happen if we don’t adapt,” Dr. Staid said, “if we don’t take climate considerations into account when planning our energy system.”

Over the last decade, the number of weather-related power outages has almost doubled, according to Climate Central. Most major power outages between 2000 and 2023 were caused by extreme weather, and 14 percent of those were caused by tropical cyclones and hurricanes.

Some of the counties with the highest risk for more frequent power outages — like Broward County, Fla., Wilkinson County, Miss., and Hyde County, N.C. — also have the highest levels of social vulnerability, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Those counties have demographic and social-economic factors, like poverty and lack of transportation access, that can adversely affect communities that face natural disasters.

Joan Casey, an associate professor of public health at the University of Washington, said power outages amplify risk for people with underlying health conditions. Lack of power can quickly take people that are vulnerable, such as those who use electricity-dependent respirators, from relative safety to a dangerous situation.

The map has limitations. Researchers used the worst-case future climate scenario projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and considered a static infrastructure grid without factoring in potential changes that could harden the power system, like burying lines underground, strengthening poles, or installing community-scale solar.

But Karthik Balaguru, a Pacific Northwest National Laboratory researcher and co-creator of the map, pointed out that while it’s a worst-case model, some research suggests that we’re trekking closer to this model than any other by midcentury.

And hurricanes aren’t the only risk. Last week, a report from the Union of Concerned Scientists found that by 2050, a different climate risk, sea level rise, could expose more than 1,600 critical buildings and services to flooding twice a year, including more than 150 electrical substations.

“It’s a wake-up call that we need to be addressing our power system and making it much more reliable and much more resilient to climate related stresses,” said Kristina Dahl, a principal climate scientist for the Climate and Energy Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists and a co-author of the report.

Dr. Casey said we could take important steps now to invest in our grid, particularly with solar and battery storage that can provide community-scale power. But that won’t be enough.

“We have to stop burning fossil fuels,” said Dr. Casey. “That’s pretty much the answer.”

The agency predicted 17 to 25 named storms this year; a typical season has about 14 named storms. The prediction reflects the more than a dozen forecasts from experts for the season, which officially ends on Nov. 30.

The outlook this year for major hurricanes forming is more aggressive because of climate change, according to a consensus of climate scientists. The warming planet allows the atmosphere to hold more moisture, which means that a storm can produce more rainfall, and warmer ocean water temperatures provide more energy for storms to draw upon.

The busier forecast is also because of the potential formation of a weather pattern known as La Niña, which takes place in the Pacific because of changing ocean temperatures and affects weather patterns around the world.

Experts caution that a storm does not need to be a major hurricane to cause damage, and that extreme flooding and winds can occur hundreds of miles inland, not just on the coastline.

When a hurricane is approaching and the authorities issue an evacuation order, you may not have much time to protect your home and your family from the storm — and from flooding — before you must head for safer ground.

Here’s what you can do to get ready ahead of time.

Make a family plan.

Prepare an emergency kit, including cash, prescription medicines and three days’ worth of food and water (for people and pets). If your house floods and you can’t return immediately, these will be is essential. Be sure to consider provisions for those with special needs, like older people. If you need help coming up with a list, this one from Wirecutter, a New York Times company, has suggestions for any household.

If you live in a coastal area, it’s important to be familiar with community evacuation plans, evacuation zones and evacuation routes.

Plan a meeting spot for your family. Deanna Frazier, a spokeswoman for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said that forgetting to do that was one of the most common mistakes when Hurricane Harvey landed as a Category 4 storm in Texas in 2017.

“Cellphones may not work, or you may not have your cellphone with you,” she said. “There were a lot of people who were looking for loved ones and disconnected from them. Those are the kinds of things that you need to think about.”

Listen to local news reports for the most up-to-date information on how to prepare and when to evacuate. “The biggest issue I see people running into is that they just wait too long,” said Alberto Moscoso, a former communications director for the Florida Division of Emergency Management. “When it comes to hurricane and storm preparation, now is always the right time.”

Protect your documents and valuables.

Photograph or scan important documents like driver’s licenses, Social Security cards, passports, prescriptions, tax statements and other legal papers. Upload the images online for safekeeping. Store physical documents in a fireproof, watertight container, or take them with you. FEMA’s Emergency Financial First Aid Kit has a checklist of documents that you would be likely to need to claim insurance and other benefits.

When the time comes to evacuate, take irreplaceable keepsakes with you, if possible. Otherwise, move belongings with sentimental or monetary value upstairs or to high shelves where floodwaters might not reach them.

It’s common for people to underestimate where and how high the water will go.

“Anywhere it rains, it can flood,” Mr. Acree said.

[What do storm categories mean? Here’s what you need to know.]

If possible, make sure that your home has flood insurance. Most homeowners’ policies do not cover flood damage, and flood insurance policies generally take 30 days to become effective.

Bottle water and freeze food.

The Food and Drug Administration recommends switching your refrigerator and freezer to the coldest possible settings and moving fridge items to the freezer so they will stay cold longer if the power goes out. A tightly packed freezer can stay cold for as long as 48 hours without power. If you can’t fit everything into the freezer, add containers of ice to the fridge.

Keep thermometers in the fridge and freezer, so you can check the temperature when you return. Anything that has remained at 40 degrees Fahrenheit or colder is safe to eat.

Move pantry items and a supply of bottled water to high, secure shelves, so they will be safer from floodwaters.

Take stock of household chemicals.

Look for any potentially dangerous products, like bleach, ammonia or drain cleaners. Check in the garage as well as the house. Make sure all their lids are tightly closed, and move these items to high shelves, as far from potential flooding as possible. Chemicals that mix into floodwaters can be hazardous to your health and may cause fires and explosions.

Think about power.

Move electronics, small appliances, portable heating systems and other things with wires to upper levels and high shelves — as far away from water as possible. If you have a portable generator, keep it away from moisture. (Never use it indoors, or plug it into a wall outlet.)

Clear the yard and secure the windows.

Trim and safely dispose of tree branches that might break and fall during hurricane winds, or become projectiles if left on the ground. Secure rain gutters and downspouts, and clear any clogged areas that might stop water from draining from your property. Move bikes, trash cans, outdoor furniture, grills, tanks and building materials to a secure place, either indoors or tied down, as these can fly in high winds. Board up your windows to prevent leaks and broken glass, and, where necessary, secure doors with storm shutters.

Stay safe.

Avoid driving or walking through floodwaters, which can be hazardous in many different ways: They could be electrically charged from downed or buried power lines; they could conceal debris like glass, dead animals or even poisonous snakes; they could be contaminated with sewage or hazardous chemicals. Just six inches of moving water can knock a person down; a foot of fast-moving water can destabilize a vehicle.

Don’t enter your house until officials say it is safe to do so. To avoid electrical hazards from flooding, turn off the electricity at the main fuse box or circuit breaker panel, or ask for professional help. Proceed inside with caution — don’t touch electrical equipment, and use a flashlight to light your way rather than anything flammable.

When in doubt, throw it out.

Only bottled water, canned and well-packaged foods may be safe to consume after a flood. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advises throwing away any food that may have come in contact with water. If cans get wet, remove their labels and wash the cans in a bleach solution before opening them.

Waterborne diseases are also a risk. Drink fresh bottled water if it is available; if it is not, boil water according to C.D.C. guidelines before drinking it.

Clean up properly.

Hazardous chemicals, mold, asbestos and lead paint are some of the potential dangers in the aftermath of a flood — so follow official recommendations and wear gloves, eye protection and face masks when on any flood-damaged property. Before beginning to clean up and remove debris, take photographs of your home its general condition and any damage and contact your insurance company; after that, air the place out and remove any water-damaged items. This is the most important step in minimizing the growth of mold, which can cause asthma attacks, eye and skin irritation and allergic reactions.

Johnny Diaz contributed reporting.