WASHINGTON (AP) — Less than a week after staging rival events on the banks of the Rio Grande River along the U.S.-Mexico border, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will face voters on the Texas primary ballot in a state that has openly clashed with the Biden administration over how to address a record number of illegal border crossings.
The dueling Rio Grande trips are an indication not only that Biden and Trump are already looking beyond the primaries to a likely rematch of their 2020 campaign but also that the issues of immigration and border security will continue to be a dominant topic as in recent elections.
Trump has made illegal immigration a central theme of all his presidential campaigns. Earlier this year, he helped scuttle a bipartisan Senate package that coupled border security measures with aid for Ukraine, arguing it would hand Democrats a political win and calling it a “death wish for the Republican Party.”
For his part, Biden recently has adopted a more aggressive tone on the issue, saying he would shut down the border if he could and mulling unilateral executive actions that progressives in his party have said are reminiscent of Trump.
Texas is one of the biggest electoral prizes on Super Tuesday, when 16 states and American Samoa hold nominating contests to help anoint the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates to compete in November. Trump once again will face former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, who has lost the first six contests this year. Biden faces U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips and self-help author Marianne Williamson, neither of whom has cracked into double-digit territory in any contest where Biden has appeared on the ballot.
Texans will also decide several key state races on Super Tuesday, most notably the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, where U.S. Rep. Colin Allred of Dallas and state Sen. Roland Gutierrez of San Antonio lead a crowded field of candidates hoping to unseat Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in November. The race heads to a May 28 runoff if no candidate wins a vote majority. Cruz, who faces relatively unknown challengers in his primary, survived a surprisingly strong challenge in 2018 from former Democratic U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke by only 2.5 percentage points.
What to know for Election Day
The Texas presidential and state primaries will be held on Super Tuesday, March 5. All polls close at 7 p.m. local time, but Texas is located in both the central and mountain time zones. Almost the entire state closes at 8 p.m. ET, but El Paso and Hudspeth counties in the westernmost tip of the state close at 9 p.m. ET.
Delegate allocation rules
There are 244 pledged Democratic delegates at stake in Texas, and they’re awarded according to the national party’s standard rules. Fifty-three at-large delegates are allocated in proportion to the statewide vote, as are 32 PLEO delegates, or “party leaders and elected officials.” The state’s 38 congressional districts have a combined 159 delegates at stake, which are allocated in proportion to the vote results in each district. Candidates must receive at least 15% of the statewide vote to qualify for any statewide delegates, and 15% of the vote in a congressional district to qualify for delegates in that district.
Republicans have 161 total delegates, of which 150 are at stake on Super Tuesday. The candidate who receives a majority of the statewide vote wins all 36 statewide delegates at stake in the primary. If no candidate receives a vote majority, those 36 delegates are allocated proportionally, although the exact method depends on how many candidates surpass the 20% threshold. Each of the 38 congressional districts awards three delegates, using similar rules.
Decision notes
Biden won a competitive 2020 primary by about 5 points over U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders as part of a string of Super Tuesday victories that cemented his front-runner status. He carried the Dallas and Houston areas, as well as most of the smaller counties across the state. Sanders won in the Austin and San Antonio areas and in counties along the southwest border. Those are the places where a strong candidate might challenge Biden from his left flank.
Trump placed a distant second in the 2016 primary behind favorite son Cruz. Haley won’t be able to replicate a sweeping win over Trump as Cruz did, so to eke out an upset victory, she may be better off borrowing a page from the Sanders playbook: win in the state’s liberal, self-described “weird” areas. To do so, she would need to attract crossover votes from Democrats and independents uninterested in participating in the Democratic primary. But even so, she would need to run competitively in moderate swing areas and some lean-Republican areas, a feat she’s been unable to accomplish after five contests.