Business As Usual: Washington Returns to Budget Fights After the Election

  

The nation’s capital is once again gearing up for a familiar battle: the federal budget. After a tumultuous election season, Congress is turning its attention to the contentious process of funding the federal government—a fight that reveals some divisions within the Republican-controlled House and sets the stage for a showdown with the Democrat-led Senate and White House.

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) made waves this week by advocating for a short-term continuing resolution (CR) that would keep the federal government funded into early 2025. Speaking on “Fox News Sunday,” Johnson argued that his three-month CR would give Republicans and President-elect Donald Trump greater influence over fiscal year 2025 spending decisions. 

This approach echoes the 2017 budget strategy, which allowed Trump to exert significant control over appropriations bills shortly after taking office.

Via Punchbowl News this morning:

But Johnson said his approach would give President-elect Donald Trump and Hill Republicans a greater say over FY2025 spending bills.

For Trump, this could turn into a repeat of 2017. Hill Republicans dragged their feet on a spending deal at that time, and the appropriations bills weren’t finished until May. The delay could also impact Trump’s “100-day” agenda. Although that’s already in jeopardy on the Hill anyway.

Johnson, however, wantsto avoid the messy floor fight spending bills with his conservative flank in late December. Especially when he faces a floor vote over serving as speaker on the opening day of the 119th Congress, a vote that the Louisiana Republican will need Trump’s help for anyway.

Johnson’s plan is far from the consensus on Capitol Hill. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and GOP appropriators in both chambers are pushing for a series of “minibuses” — smaller, targeted spending packages — that would fund the government through September 2025. Their approach, favored by fiscal conservatives, is aimed at curbing government spending and enacting conservative priorities in the budget process.

Strategic Calculations in a Divided Government

Johnson’s preference for a CR isn’t just about delaying the inevitable. It’s a tactical move designed to sidestep a messy December floor fight with the GOP’s right flank, a group known for demanding deep spending cuts and threatening government shutdowns to achieve them. Johnson also faces another challenge: the opening-day vote to retain his speakership in the 119th Congress. 

Securing Trump’s support for that vote will be critical, and aligning with Trump’s broader agenda on budget strategy could help solidify that backing. Johnson is in a largely strong position on that front. He guided a slim House majority through the back half of the Biden administration and worked feverishly to keep and grow his majority — the latter of which now seems likely. His ability to guide the House GOP and fundraise to get swing district Republicans through close races make him a solid choice for leader.

READ MORE: Mike Johnson Saw a Republican Wave Coming, and Laid the Groundwork. Now, He Should Remain Speaker.

However, fiscal conservatives have been less than enthusiastic about Johnson’s lack of energy in pushing for more cuts. On the other hand, Scalise’s strategy appeals to Republicans eager to reassert the party’s fiscal discipline and avoid the appearance of kicking the can down the road. However, the reality of a Democrat-controlled Senate and White House complicates this approach. Any budget deal will require bipartisan cooperation, and President Joe Biden has already signaled that he will not sign legislation that guts key Democratic priorities.

The Trump Factor

The 2024 election placed Donald Trump back at the center of Washington’s political dynamics. Johnson’s approach gives the president-elect an early hand in shaping the federal budget — a scenario reminiscent of Trump’s first term, when Republicans delayed appropriations until May 2017. While the delay could stall progress on Trump’s ambitious “100-day agenda,” it also allows his administration to exert influence on spending bills that align with his priorities.

For conservatives, this strategy carries risks. A delayed budget could weaken the GOP’s credibility as a fiscally responsible party and leave critical decisions in the hands of Democrats if Republicans fail to act decisively. However, it may also force Democrats to negotiate from a weaker position as the fiscal year’s clock runs down.

A Familiar Battle With High Stakes

As Washington braces for another round of budget brinkmanship, the stakes are clear. The internal GOP debate over Johnson’s and Scalise’s approaches reflects deeper questions about the party’s direction in a divided government. Will Republicans prioritize immediate fiscal conservatism, or will they play the long game to strengthen Trump’s hand?

One thing is certain: The budget battle is far from over. With the 2024 election in the rearview mirror, Washington’s business as usual is back, and the American people can expect more political fireworks in the months ahead.