North Texas is on the verge of a College Football Playoff berth. Here’s their full playoff picture.
DENTON, Texas — The biggest game in North Texas football history will happen Friday night.
The Mean Green travel to New Orleans to play Tulane in the American Conference Championship Game. Not only is a conference title at stake; North Texas’ hopes to make the College Football Playoff rest squarely on the outcome against the Green Wave.
And even though Tulane is currently ranked, and North Texas is not, Vegas appears to be a fan of the Denton squad, placing them as 2.5-point favorites on the road.
Oddly enough, both teams will be playing with an outgoing coach. Eric Morris is leaving North Texas for Oklahoma State, while Jon Sumrall is leaving Tulane for Florida. But both coaches will be with their teams Friday night, and for whatever playoff run the programs might make.
On that note, let’s walk through the scenarios of how North Texas can make the College Football Playoff – and how they can’t:
What if North Texas loses to Tulane?
There’s no way around it: While 2025 is already the greatest season in North Texas history, a loss to Tulane would dash any hope of the Mean Green making the playoff. They would not be a conference champion and would also not be ranked high enough to secure an at-large bid to the 12-team field. (For college football diehards: Yes, this is stating the obvious, but bear with us here).
What if North Texas beats Tulane?
First question: By how much? Maybe the optics won’t matter, but maybe they will. But let’s explain.
The College Football Playoff takes the five highest-ranked conference champions as automatic qualifiers. There’s the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC as the “Power Four” conferences. Then there’s the “Group of 5,” the American, Conference USA, Mountain West, MAC and Sun Belt.
The good news for North Texas (and Tulane) is that the American is *generally* regarded as the strongest conference in the Group of 5. Also, Tulane was ranked 24th in last week’s College Football Playoff rankings, seemingly a nod of respect by the committee.
So if North Texas beats Tulane, that would, in theory, get the Mean Green ranked in their place, if not higher, right? And, in effect, that would make North Texas the fifth highest-ranked conference champion, securing their spot in the playoff, right?
Both of those outcomes are likely if North Texas beats Tulane.
The wrinkle in this plan comes down to one team: James Madison, which is likely to beat Troy in the Sun Belt Championship this week. James Madison would finish 12-1, and, for what it’s worth, they’ve been ranked higher than North Texas in the AP poll this year.
How does the committee view North Texas vs. James Madison? It’s hard to say, since neither have been ranked by the committee, and there’s no “receiving votes” section like with the AP poll.
It’s still likely the committee would favor North Texas over James Madison. The American has been stronger than the Sun Belt, Tulane has been an established program in recent years, and North Texas’ lone loss was to a solid South Florida team.
Also, looking at advanced analytics, ESPN’s SP+ ratings place North Texas at 16th in the country, compared to James Madison at 24th. Tulane is ranked 44th in the SP+, for the record.
What if Duke beats Virginia?
Wait, what? Quick sidebar, but worth noting. Duke, at 7-5, squeezed into the ACC Championship Game by way of tiebreaker. If the Blue Devils somehow beat Virginia to win the ACC, we could see the rare scenario of a Power Four conference getting shut out of the playoff entirely.
In that case, the committee would essentially have to decide between three teams for two spots: The American champion (North Texas or Tulane), James Madison (assuming they win the Sun Belt) and Duke, at 8-5. Despite Duke playing in a better conference, it would be hard to place Duke ahead of both North Texas/Tulane and James Madison. So we’d have both Group of Five champions getting in the playoff.
