China has unveiled two new so-called sixth-generation fighter aircraft designed to demonstrate technological prowess and overawe its potential adversaries, but which could be much less.
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The first model to appear was produced by the Chengdu Aircraft Corporation. It is a large single-seat fighter using a tailless design to reduce its radar cross-section. It also had an unusual air intake system that caused aviation hearts to flutter.
Maybe the aircraft’s most unusual feature is its air intake arrangement. It appears to have an air intake on top of the fuselage, as well as twin intakes on either side of the lower fuselage. This has already led to speculation that the aircraft may have a highly unorthodox three-engine arrangement. Unconfirmed rumors point to a powerplant comprising three domestically produced WS-10C turbofans, as used in the J-20. Considering the aircraft’s higher gross weight than the J-20, three engines may be necessary in order to meet aggressive performance goals, especially for sustained high-speed flight and operations at high altitudes.
What struck me was this part of the description.
In terms of size, the new aircraft can be compared to the J-20 — the imagery suggests it is at least as long. The J-20 is close to 70 feet from nose to tail. In this regard, this design’s twin-wheel main landing gear is also worth noting, providing another pointer to the considerable weight of the aircraft. Above all, its large size would seem to reflect an overarching concern with long endurance and comparatively massive internal volume to accommodate a very large fuel load, as well as weapons and sensors.
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Shortly after this plane made its debut, a second new model appeared, this one built by Chengdu’s main rival, the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation.
While the Chengdu design has a modified diamond-delta wing planform, with extended wing-root “chines,’’ the Shenyang aircraft has a relatively sharply swept wing, although this is hardly conventional, being more in line with a “lambda” wing profile. This platform creates prominent triangular-shaped trailing-edge extensions that taper back from roughly mid-point in the wing, and project out beyond the engine exhausts.
Unlike the apparent new Chengdu design, which is understood to have a three-engine powerplant, the Shenyang design is a more conventional twin-engine aircraft, in also keeping with its smaller size. The engines appear to be fed by what seems to be diverterless supersonic inlet (DSI) intakes on either side of the forward fuselage, below the wing root, and which look to be very angular in shape.
What to make of this?
China’s two major military aircraft manufacturers rolling out prototypes of what is alleged to be the first flyable models of a new-generation fighter aircraft certainly screams “public relations gimmick.” At this stage, no one has had a chance to examine the aircraft, so everything we read about it is speculative. Are they real, or are they supposed to create an aura of technological superiority?
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We’ve seen one version of this picture before. The Soviet MiG-25 first appeared at the 50th October Revolution Airshow on July 9, 1967 at Domodedovo airport. It was unexpected, and it was the star.
US intelligence panicked and our defense industry set about designing an aircraft that couldovermatch the MiG-25.
In 1967, the Soviet Union took to the skies with the Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-25, aka the Foxbat, which seemed utterly terrifying. The interceptor could reach a top speed of Mach 2.83 and was said to feature top-of-the-line navigation technology and weaponry. Suffice to say, it appeared to outclass the United States’ main aircraft at the time, the McDonnell Douglas F-4 Phantom II, by a mile.
Once those in the U.S. caught wind of the Soviets’ new plane, they went into panic mode and swiftly began developing a new craft of their own. McDonnell Douglas, specifically, got to work, and within a few years of conceptualization, construction, and testing, the F-15 was born. Though the MiG-25 seemed to give the U.S. reason to worry, in reality, many of its apparent strengths turned out to be merely superficial.
Fast-forward to September 6, 1976, when Lieutenant Viktor Belenko defected to the West by landing his MiG-25 fighter at Hakodate Airport in Hokkaido, Japan. When Western engineers examined the airplane, they discovered it was crudely made and designed for high speeds.
The tear-down revealed that the braggart was a toothless phony, too heavy to be maneuverable at low altitudes, limited in what it could accomplish up high, and with little range and no midair refueling capability. When later compared to the U.S. teen-series fighters, the F-15, -16 and -18, it was powerless, particularly because the Foxbat had a max-G rating of 4.5, and just 2.2 with full fuel. Excess Gs would rip its half-ton air-to-air missiles from their underwing hardpoints, since the airplane was intended to go fast but in a straight line. The Foxbat was a one-trick pony, and nobody was betting on that horse anymore.
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Last month, this video (or one like it) kicked off vigorous debate on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, that perhaps had a lot more heat than light.
The video drew this response from Elon Musk.
You have to ask yourself why China, the owner of the above “drone swarm,” is sinking billions of dollars into developing a manned fighter if they believe the drone is the future of warfare. You also have to ask why a continental power like China is investing in a heavy stealth fighter “with long endurance and comparatively massive internal volume to accommodate a very large fuel load, as well as weapons and sensors” for a future battlefield that we are told will be dominated by drones and hypersonic missiles — unless the new fighters are a head fake designed to catch our attention and divert resources to countering them.
At this point, these aircraft are what the late Don Rumsfeld would call “known unknowns.” We know these planes exist, but we have no idea what they mean. What we can count on is defense contractors trying to divert as many Pentagon resources as possible into developing an aircraft that can overmatch these two Chinese planes without having any idea of their capability.
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