When you talk about the 2024 race, a lot of it is going to come down to the battleground states.
As the Real Clear Politics Average shows, former President Donald Trump is ahead in six of the seven states, with Joe Biden being ahead only in Pennsylvania–and not by much, 46.5 to 46.
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The only other one that’s close is Wisconsin, where Trump is ahead by one point. On average, over all the battleground states, Trump is up by 2.8 percent. In the states other than Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Trump is up three percentage points or more.
On Friday, CNN’s Harry Enten had some fascinating things to say about where Trump and Biden are at this point.
He spoke about Michigan, where Biden was declared the winner in 2020 by almost 3 points. Enten said Michigan was the swing state that Biden carried by the largest margin.
You know, on this particular one, if we were just looking at one poll, right, and saw, OK, Donald Trump ahead by three points, that’s well within the margin of error. But I want to sort of take a look here at the trend line, and that is that there really isn’t much of a trend line, there’s just a lot of consistency going on here. Fox, Trump plus three. “Wall Street Journal,” Trump plus three. CNN last month, Trump plus eight. Quinnipiac, Trump plus three back in March. And Fox, back in February, had Trump plus two. So, in fact, there isn’t any real trend line that we’re seeing away from Donald Trump.
That spells trouble for Biden in Michigan. We know that he’s also facing a revolt there from some on the left on the subject of Israel. But if he’s in that much trouble in Michigan, that explains why he’s behind in most of the other swing states.
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But then Enten revealed something else that you just know is going to trigger Joe Biden, given how much Trump is in his head. Biden has become less likable since he came into office. Meanwhile, Trump has become more likable in that time.
This is viewed favorably across Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. In the 2020 exit polls, what do we see? Fifty percent of voters viewed Joe Biden on average favorably in those states, compared to just 45 percent for Donald Trump. Look at the Joe Biden trend line, where he is now. Joe Biden is far less liked than he was four years ago, just 43 percent of voters now view Joe Biden favorably in these states. And Donald Trump, despite everything that has happened, everything that has happened, is actually slightly more liked, 47 percent favorable rating.
So, this isn’t just the lesser of two evils that’s going on. The fact is that Donald Trump is in fact better liked than he was four years ago and is better liked than Joe Biden is right now in these battleground states. It’s pretty gosh darn clear.
You know that Biden will have a fit if he hears that, and I can imagine Fox’s Peter Doocy trying to ask the White House about it.
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Biden likes to think that he and the Democrats have painted such an evil picture of Trump. There have been all kinds of lawfare and things thrown against him. But “despite everything that has happened,” (CNN can’t quite believe it), Trump has actually increased in likability and is viewed more favorably, is better liked than Joe Biden by two points. It probably would be even worse for Biden if the liberal media were more honest about Biden and Trump. The bottom line is now, having seen both of them in actions in the White House, the view of Trump improves and the view of Biden diminishes. They remember how much better things were under Trump; they know how bad things are under Joe Biden.