North Texas remains the most populated region in the state with more than 8.3 million residents, due in part to staggering growth in Collin County, which added more than 145,000 residents in the last four years, as well as continued growth in Fort Worth, which appears to have surpassed Austin as the fourth most populous city in the state.
From 2020 to January 2024, North Texas has gained over 560,000 residents, according to new population estimates by the Texas Demographic Center (TDC). The population explosion is most notable in Collin, Tarrant, Denton, Rockwall, and Kaufman counties. According to the data, these counties lead the state in either numeric gains or percentage increases over the last four years.
Collin County added almost 145,000 residents in the last four years, the most significant increment in the state. The county now has 1.2 million residents, most of them in the cities of McKinney (about 220,000 people), Frisco (220,000 people) and Allen (110,000 people), as of January 2024. Denton County also saw considerable growth and gained more than 100,000 residents over the last four years, surpassing a million inhabitants.
Celina, a city in the counties of Denton and Collin, had over 43,000 residents, according to the January 2024 estimates. This city more than doubled its population from nearly 17,000 people in the 2020 Census.
“Well, I think a lot of that has to do with where we’re located,” elaborated Joe Monaco, Director of Marketing & Communications of Celina City.
“We have Preston on one side; we’ve got the Tollway expanding on the other side. We are 40 miles away from Dallas, and we’re really benefiting a lot from all the businesses that are coming into Dallas and especially the North Texas area.”
Originally from Ohio, Monaco said he lived in Mansfield and Frisco before settling in Prosper with his family during the pandemic.
“What attracted us is that we wanted to be in an area where our kids had great schools like all parents do,’ he said, “and we wanted to be in the area we felt very safe.”
Collin’s growth in the last years has been so rapid that it has already met one of the two scenarios of what this county’s population would be in 2030. The demographic center, in 2012, projected Collin to have 1.2 million people at the end of the decade in a scenario with half of the 2010-2020 migration rates. The second projection (assuming the 2010-2020 migration rates) estimates Collin to reach 1.3 million by the end of 2030, 1.6 million people by 2040, and 2.4 million by 2060.
Other examples of North Texas’ expansion are Kaufman and Rockwall, two neighboring Dallas counties, which experienced the highest percentage growth in population in the state. Kaufman’s population grew by 26.7%, or about 39,000 residents, from 2020 to 2024. Rockwall increased its population by 25% in the same period, growing the county by about 28,000 residents.
Tarrant, in turn, has gained more than 93,000 residents from 2020 to 2024, a 4.4% increase. Its total estimated population is 2.2 million, from 2.1 million last year. Fort Worth alone took in more than 70,000 new residents from 2020 to 2024, and its current population stands at almost 990,000 inhabitants. The newest figures by TDC suggest Fort Worth might have just surpassed Austin in population. The capital of Texas has about 987,000 inhabitants, according to the January 2024 estimates.
“Growth has been explosive,” said Jaime Resendiz, real estate agent and host of The DFW Homeowner, a YouTube channel exploring the housing market in the area. “There’s growth on the south side of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, but the North just blows it out of the water.”
“Anything that is North is just going to have high demand, and typically there, with the real estate prices, you’re seeing the appreciation in these areas just go through the roof,” Resendiz explained.
The Texas Demographic Center releases yearly population estimates that differ from those of the U.S. Census Bureau and use a different methodology. It projects population with a mix of national and local data, as well as state surveys on building permits and school enrollment.
“County-level birth and death data were obtained from the Texas Department of State Health Services,” the methodology report reads.
In the last four years, 90 Texas counties have decreased their population, but none of them are in the North Texas area. Dallas County is among the counties with some of the lowest increments from 2020 to 2024, since it gained only 0.6% in this period. This translates to over 16,000 new residents, and the population remains at 2.6 million, with minimal change over the last four years. The metro area of Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington now has over 8.1 million residents after crossing the 8 million mark last year.