El Niño and Texas: What history tells us

AUSTIN (KXAN) — El Niño is officially here and the potential for a strong El Niño to develop continues to increase.

Odds of a strong El Niño this winter are currently at 50%, according to the Climate Prediction Center, with the odds of at least a moderate El Niño at more than 80%.

Historically El Niño has the following impacts on weather in Texas:

Hurricane season (June-November): Fewer Atlantic storms, but limited impact on the Gulf and more storms in the Eastern Pacific that could bring moisture and flooding rain to the state

Winter (December-February): Wetter and cooler weather overall

Spring (March-May): Fewer tornadoes and dramatically fewer hail storms

Previous El Niño winters since 1980 (December-February)

Looking back at the sea-surface temperature departure from normal we can rank previous El Niño events from Weak (+0.5ºC) to Strong (+1.5ºC).

2018-2019 (Weak)

2015-2016 (Strong)

2014-2015 (Weak)

2009-2010 (Strong)

2006-2007 (Weak)

2004-2005 (Weak)

2002-2003 (Moderate)

1997-1998 (Strong)

1994-1995 (Moderate)

1991-1992 (Strong)

1987-1988 (Weak)

1986-1987 (Moderate)

1982-1983 (Strong)

1979-1980 (Weak)

Strong El Niños since 1980 (December-February)

2015-2016

2009-2010

1997-1998

1991-1992

1982-1983

What happened in Texas during those strong El Niño winters?

KXAN looked at statewide temperature and precipitation data rankings during the last five “strong” El Niños in Texas and nationwide to give us some insight on what a strong El Niño this winter could bring.

Winter 2015-2016 (+2.5ºC)

This winter was the 10th warmest and 59th driest winter in Texas history out of 129 years of data.

Here’s how the rest of the United States ranked for temperatures and precipitation in winter 2015-2016.

Winter 2009-2010 (+1.5ºC)

This winter was the eighth coolest and 12th wettest winter in Texas history out of 129 years of data.

Here’s how the rest of the United States ranked for temperatures and precipitation in winter 2009-2010.

Winter 1997-1998 (+2.2ºC)

This winter was the 38th warmest and seventh wettest winter in Texas history out of 129 years of data.

Here’s how the rest of the United States ranked for temperatures and precipitation in winter 1997-1998.

Winter 1991-1992 (+1.7ºC)

This winter was the 33rd warmest and second wettest winter in Texas history out of 129 years of data.

Winter 1982-1983 (+2.2ºC)

This winter was the 44th coldest and 19th wettest winter in Texas history out of 129 years of data.

Here’s how the rest of the United States ranked for temperatures and precipitation in winter 1982-1983.

Summary

Of the most recent 5 strong El Niño winters, four of the five were among the top 20 wettest winters for the state of Texas. Temperatures showed less of a connection with three out of the five winters actually ending up warmer than normal.

Winter 2015-2016 really showed an opposite tendency to the typical “cooler and wetter” pattern that El Niño is known for in Texas with a drier and much warmer season instead.

Last five strong El Niños in Texas and the impact on temperature and precipitation

What about Central Texas?

KXAN Chief Meteorologist David Yeomans looked at the rainfall and floods associated with recent El Niños of any strength. He found that some of the heaviest rains from El Niño can occur outside the winter months.


In-Depth: What a switch to El Niño could mean for central Texas weather in 2023

While wetter weather seems more likely than cooler weather this winter, there clearly have been exceptions to the typical El Niño pattern.

 

AUSTIN (KXAN) — El Niño is officially here and the potential for a strong El Niño to develop continues to increase.

Odds of a strong El Niño this winter are currently at 50%, according to the Climate Prediction Center, with the odds of at least a moderate El Niño at more than 80%.

Historically El Niño has the following impacts on weather in Texas:

Hurricane season (June-November): Fewer Atlantic storms, but limited impact on the Gulf and more storms in the Eastern Pacific that could bring moisture and flooding rain to the state

Winter (December-February): Wetter and cooler weather overall

Spring (March-May): Fewer tornadoes and dramatically fewer hail storms

Previous El Niño winters since 1980 (December-February)

Looking back at the sea-surface temperature departure from normal we can rank previous El Niño events from Weak (+0.5ºC) to Strong (+1.5ºC).

2018-2019 (Weak)

2015-2016 (Strong)

2014-2015 (Weak)

2009-2010 (Strong)

2006-2007 (Weak)

2004-2005 (Weak)

2002-2003 (Moderate)

1997-1998 (Strong)

1994-1995 (Moderate)

1991-1992 (Strong)

1987-1988 (Weak)

1986-1987 (Moderate)

1982-1983 (Strong)

1979-1980 (Weak)

Strong El Niños since 1980 (December-February)

2015-2016

2009-2010

1997-1998

1991-1992

1982-1983

What happened in Texas during those strong El Niño winters?

KXAN looked at statewide temperature and precipitation data rankings during the last five “strong” El Niños in Texas and nationwide to give us some insight on what a strong El Niño this winter could bring.

Winter 2015-2016 (+2.5ºC)

This winter was the 10th warmest and 59th driest winter in Texas history out of 129 years of data.

Here’s how the rest of the United States ranked for temperatures and precipitation in winter 2015-2016.

Winter 2009-2010 (+1.5ºC)

This winter was the eighth coolest and 12th wettest winter in Texas history out of 129 years of data.

Here’s how the rest of the United States ranked for temperatures and precipitation in winter 2009-2010.

Winter 1997-1998 (+2.2ºC)

This winter was the 38th warmest and seventh wettest winter in Texas history out of 129 years of data.

Here’s how the rest of the United States ranked for temperatures and precipitation in winter 1997-1998.

Winter 1991-1992 (+1.7ºC)

This winter was the 33rd warmest and second wettest winter in Texas history out of 129 years of data.

Winter 1982-1983 (+2.2ºC)

This winter was the 44th coldest and 19th wettest winter in Texas history out of 129 years of data.

Here’s how the rest of the United States ranked for temperatures and precipitation in winter 1982-1983.

Summary

Of the most recent 5 strong El Niño winters, four of the five were among the top 20 wettest winters for the state of Texas. Temperatures showed less of a connection with three out of the five winters actually ending up warmer than normal.

Winter 2015-2016 really showed an opposite tendency to the typical “cooler and wetter” pattern that El Niño is known for in Texas with a drier and much warmer season instead.

Last five strong El Niños in Texas and the impact on temperature and precipitation

What about Central Texas?

KXAN Chief Meteorologist David Yeomans looked at the rainfall and floods associated with recent El Niños of any strength. He found that some of the heaviest rains from El Niño can occur outside the winter months.


In-Depth: What a switch to El Niño could mean for central Texas weather in 2023

While wetter weather seems more likely than cooler weather this winter, there clearly have been exceptions to the typical El Niño pattern.