Favorable views of President Donald Trump have dropped by 15 percentage points in Texas, a solidly Republican state Democrats have long hoped to flip, according to a new poll released Thursday.
Newsweek reached out to the White House for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Texas for decades has been one of the most conservative states in the country, last voting for a Democratic presidential ticket in 1976. Throughout the 2010s, it drifted toward Democrats as Republicans lost voters in suburban areas around Austin, Dallas and Houston.
But in 2024, it shifted firmly back to Republicans, with Trump winning it by nearly 14 points. This was in part due to his strength with Hispanic voters in South Texas border counties, which were once Democratic strongholds that flipped to him.
Texas, with its 40 Electoral College votes, becoming competitive for Democrats would upend politics if it happens in the coming election cycles. However, the 2024 results have called into question whether it will actually become a battleground state in the near future.
President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign stop in Houston, Texas on November 2, 2023.
Brandon Bell/Getty Images
What to Know
A new survey from the polling firm Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) suggests Trump’s favorability in Texas is dropping, as it has nationwide amid growing concerns about the economy and tariffs.
His favorability in the latest poll is -3, with 50 percent of Texans viewing him unfavorably compared to 47 percent who view him favorably. This is down from a positive 12 favorability rating after the November presidential election.
That amounts to a 15 point shift away from the Republican president.
The poll also found that national conservative figures like Vice President JD Vance and billionaire Elon Musk, who leads the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), are underwater by three points and 10 points respectively.
Senator John Cornyn, a Republican up for reelection in 2026, has a favorability rating of -22, with only 21 percent of respondents saying they view him favorably. Attorney General Ken Paxton, floated as a potential conservative primary challenger to Cornyn, has a favorability rating of -5.
Conversely, former Democratic Representative Colin Allred has a favorability rating of +7. He challenged GOP Senator Ted Cruz in the Senate race last year. Although he lost by 8.4 points, he notably performed better than Vice President Kamala Harris in the southwestern state.
What People Are Saying
TPOR in a poll write-up: “The data shows a significant decline in President Donald Trump’s favorability ratings between November and March. From November to March, Trump’s favorability rating dropped from 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (+12) to 47% favorable, 50% unfavorable (-3)—a 15-point swing. Additionally, the president’s ‘very favorable’ rating dropped from 42% in November 2024 to 37% in March 2025.”
CNN Data analyst Harry Enten on March 25: “All we talk about is how unpopular Donald Trump is, but in reality, he’s basically more popular than he was at any point in term number one, and more popular than he was when he won [the] election back in November 2024.”
What Happens Next
How Trump’s approval rating will shift over the coming weeks and months will be determined by a number of factors ranging from tariffs, foreign policy moves and the economy. Democrats will continue to aim to flip Texas, but it’s unclear whether their dream will become a reality in the near future.
