Soon-to-be former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) is causing no small level of speculation about her political future after her devastating loss in Tuesday’s primary election. During her concession speech, she said she would be dedicating herself to opposing the Orange Man What Is Bad(TM) and preventing him from becoming president again in 2024.
In fact, Cheney has hinted that she is considering throwing her hat in the ring in the next presidential election, which elicited more laughter than a Dave Chappelle special. But some have speculated that while Cheney has as much of a chance of winning in 2024 as former media activist Brian Stelter has of winning “People Magazine’s” Sexiest Man Alive Award, she could still do some damage to former President Donald Trump, or another GOP candidate.
Indeed, I’m already seeing people make comparisons to Ross Perot on social media. Anti-Trumpers are fantasizing about the idea that Cheney could tank a GOP presidential campaign by running:
The idea that Cheney could derail a Republican bid for the White House seems like a long shot, but there is a way it could happen.
For starters, Cheney still has the backing of much of the establishment neocon crowd, which would come in handy if she decided to run as an independent or third party. It is doubtful that she would actually try to beat Trump in the primaries, but perhaps their support could enable her to act as a spoiler to make sure the Democratic candidate will squeak by in the polls.
The only way I can see Cheney be successful at derailing Trump or another GOP candidate does not only involve anti-Trump/MAGA conservatives, but also disaffected Democrats. The left has so royally squandered the power they have in the White House and Congress that it could motivate some members of their base who are less progressive to give Cheney a shot. Combined with the NeverTrumpers, this would not exactly be a formidable voting bloc, but it could be enough votes around the edges to give the Democrats the advantage.
But, like I said earlier, this is a total longshot.
It does not seem likely that even more conservative Democratic voters will be willing to hold their nose to support a neocon warmonger like Cheney, even if they are dissatisfied with their party. It seems more probable that these folks would say “a pox on both your houses” and sit out the 2024 election even if Trump is the Republican nominee. Orange Man Bad will only go so far after four years of the disastrous Biden administration.
Of course, I do not believe this scenario is likely to play out. But it is the only way I can see Cheney becoming a successful spoiler in 2024. She will not be able to garner enough right-leaning voters to make a difference and would have to pull from Democrats and Independents, neither of which are likely to view her favorably. The fact of the matter is nobody likes Liz Cheney at the moment – and this is not going to change anytime soon, if ever.