Early voting begins today for Nov. 5 elections that will shape the course of Texas politics.
The presidential race tops the Texas ticket. And though there hasn’t been much Texas drama in the contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, the margin of the Lone Star contest — which Trump is expected to win — could impact down-ballot races.
Here’s what to watch as the general election season heads to a conclusion.
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz is a veteran of tough races.
In 2018 he beat Democrat Beto O’Rourke by only 2.6 percentage points.
Now Cruz is in a nail-biter with Colin Allred, the three-term congressman from Dallas.
Polls show the race is within single digits. Democrats haven’t won a statewide contest since 1994, and Allred marks the party’s best chance to break through since O’Rourke.
Both candidates are barreling to the final hurdle.
Cruz is in the middle of a 50-city bus tour through Texas, where his rallies focus on keeping Texas a conservative state. He warns that his opponent is too liberal.
Since Republican voters outnumber Democrats in statewide elections, Cruz has to keep conservative voters in the fold. That’s why one of his attack lines against Allred at rallies is, “Let’s keep Texas, Texas.”
Allred, whose recent campaign stops have included El Paso, Houston, Round Rock and Missouri City, has a tougher job.
Though he hopes for a robust turnout from Democrats, much of his focus has been on appealing to independents and some Republicans. Two of his major campaign surrogates — former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming and former Tarrant County Judge Glen Whitley — are Republicans.
Whitely represented Allred in the spin room after last week’s first and only debate.
Along with independents and Republicans, Allred is also making pitches to the more than 2.5 million voters who have been added to the Texas registration rolls since 2018. Cruz is talking to those voters as well.
The bottom line: The race hinges on Allred’s ability to cut into Cruz’s base and maximize Democratic turnout. That’s a tough task in Texas.
Harris and Trump have focused their campaigns on seven swing states, even though most polls show the contest for Texas in single digits. In 2020 Trump beat Biden in Texas by 5.6 percentage points. A poll released last week by the University of Houston shows Trump leading Harris by 5 points.
Though the candidates believe the Texas outcome is not in doubt, how they perform at the top of the ticket could sway critical races down the ballot.
A Harris surge beyond what Biden accomplished in 2020 would boost Allred. Similarly, Cruz will benefit if Trump meets expectations or overperforms in Texas.
Other races could be impacted as well, including critical Texas House races in Dallas and Collin counties.
The bottom line: The presidential candidates are bypassing Texas on the campaign trail, but they are the main drivers of voter turnout and have coattails that will drag candidates up or down the ballot.
State Reps. Morgan Meyer of University Park and Angie Chen Button of Richardson are the last Republicans in the Legislature from Dallas County. For years Democrats have targeted the duo for defeat, coming close during the last decade.
In 2021 the Legislature redrew the state’s legislative boundaries to make those districts more favorable to the GOP incumbents.
Still, a bigger than expected turnout from Democrats in one of the bluest counties in the state could doom Meyer or Button, who are running against Democrats Elizabeth Ginsberg and Averie Bishop, respectively.
Another race to watch is in Collin County’s District 70, where Republican Steve Kinard is challenging incumbent Democrat Mihaela Plesa.
In 2022, Plesa won the Democratic-leaning district 50% to 49% against Republican Jamee Jolly.
The three local contests could rattle legislative politics, particularly Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s push for a private school voucherlike program. Abbott says he has the votes needed to approve a plan when the Legislature meets in January, though it could be thrown off course with Republican losses in the November general election.
The bottom line: There are only a few contested legislative races across the state, but those contests could influence what laws emerge in next year’s legislative session.
Dallas elections are typically in May and don’t attract a high number of voters.
In November, however, there are three propositions before voters — S, T and U — that could dramatically change how city government works and what power is wielded by elected officials.
The propositions, called the Dallas Hero proposals, mandate the city hire around 900 more officers and spend at least half of its annual revenue growth on the police and fire pension system and other public safety-related initiatives; tie the city manager’s bonuses and job status to the results of an annual community survey of at least 1,400 residents on quality-of-life issues; and waive the city’s immunity from lawsuits alleging officials aren’t following the city charter, state laws or city ordinances.
Critics, including four dozen former and current elected Dallas officials, say the propositions would undermine the authority of the City Council and city manager and have consequences on city spending in the effort to bolster public safety.
The Dallas Hero proposals are among 18 city charter amendment propositions that also include raises for council members and a ban on arrests for less than 4 ounces of marijuana. Propositions S, T and U are the only propositions with an announced, organized opposition effort.
Pete Marocco, Dallas Hero’s executive director, said the three proposals in question are necessary to improve public safety and create more accountability from elected officials.
Dallas hotel mogul and Republican donor Monty Bennett is helping fund the controversial trio of proposals and has given office space to the effort. It’s not known how much he’s given.
Though Dallas government is nonpartisan, the proposals are split along party lines. The Dallas County Republican Party has passed a resolution in support, while the county Democratic Party is against the measures.
The bottom line: Voter referendums are often obscure, but proposals in front of Dallas voters could change how parts of city government operate, which has resulted in the city’s past and present political leadership rallying to oppose the measures.