AUSTIN (KXAN) — Since 2020, Texas has seen a population increase estimated at 1.5 million people, according to the Texas Demographics Center, and that’s something researchers say can influence election results.
The increase adds to the citizen voting age population (CVAP) statistic in Texas, which consists of people who are eligible to register and vote in the election. Professor Rogelio Saenz researches demographic trends at the University of Texas at San Antonio, and he says the influx of people into Texas can shift the tide of how red of state Texas can be.
“A considerable amount of the interstate population is coming from California,” Saenz said. “California has traditionally voted [more] democrat.”
Much of Texas’ increased growth in population spans between Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin, an area also known as the “Texas Triangle.” The Texas Triangle consisted of more voters who vote democrat compared to other regions of Texas. Other areas closer to the border also experienced growth.
“The declines are in rural areas of Texas, and that’s where you have more of an aging population,” Saenz said.
Saenz also emphasized it’s not only people moving from other states that can cause a shift politically, but also growth in the younger population.
“That tremendous growth that we see with the Latino population—because it’s a very young population—you’re seeing these people who were 14, 15, 16 in the last few years becoming 18,” Saenz said.
Director of the Texas Politics Project at UT, Joshua Blank, noted that the emergence of a younger diverse demographic is another factor influencing the polls.
“The younger demographics are so diverse, it’s notable that with the entrance of a non-white, non-male candidate at the top of the ticket, the enthusiasm went up,” Blank said. “If that population were to start to vote at rates that were closer to their actual share of the population, it would certainly shift the balance of power in the electorate in a meaningful way.”
Early voting for Texas starts Oct. 21 and runs through Nov. 1. Election Day is on Nov. 5.