Texas is due to have the third highest growth rate of any American state this decade, with its population reaching an estimated 32,463,602 in 2030, according to the latest projection from the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.
Between 2020 and 2030, the center forecasts the Lone Star State will see its population increase by 11.4 percent, behind only Utah at 13.1 percent and Idaho at 12.4 percent.
Newsweek reached out to Texas Governor Greg Abbott for comment via email on Thursday outside of regular office hours.
Why It Matters
If a state’s population increases relative to the rest of the Union, its political influence should also receive a boost via an increased number of seats in the House of Representatives and Electoral College votes in presidential elections.
According to U.S. Census Bureau data, New York, California and several other Democratic-dominated states saw their population fall in 2023, while the more Republican Texas, Florida and Georgia recorded significant population increases.
Conservative commentators have argued that governance issues, including house prices and crime, between red and blue states cause the discrepancy.
What To Know
According to the forecast, Texas’s population will hit 32,463,602 people in 2023, an 11.4 percent growth from 2020. This will leave Texas the second most populous state behind California, with an estimated 41,321,454 people, and Florida, with 23,790,046.
U.S. Census Bureau data shows the population of Texas past the 30 million mark for the first time in 2022, when it reached 30,029,572.
The Texas state flag flying in San Antonio on March 30, 2023. The state’s population will exceed 32 million in 2030, according to a new study.
Mike Mulholland/GETTY
Notably, the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service figures show several prominent Democratic states, including California, New York and Illinois, seeing their populations grow at a “rate consistently lower” than the national average between 2020 and 2030.
However, some Democratic states, such as Oregon and Washington, are forecast higher than average growth. A succession of Republican-leaning states, including Texas, Florida and Utah, are all forecast to see population growth at a “rate consistently higher” than the national level.
Between 2000 and 2050, the center predicts southern states will go from 34.4 percent of the U.S. population to 39.8 percent, while northeastern states decline from 19 percent to 15.8 percent over the same period.
What People Are Saying
Dafydd Townley, an American politics expert at the University of Portsmouth, told Newsweek: “It’s likely that the vast majority of internal migrants to Texas are Republicans seeking a state that represents them politically.
“There was some discussion last year that such movement might be Democrats trying to flip the state, but the election results suggest that this was wide of the mark. One of the biggest drivers of this internal migration has been a booming Texan economy, especially in the southern part of the state.”
He continued: “If the state continues to grow due to internal migration, it could begin to challenge California as the most-populated state in the U.S. An increase in population will see a surge in demand for housing, providing further jobs in construction and increased tax revenue making it the destination for many seeking economic opportunities they cannot find elsewhere.”
What Happens Next
Republicans will likely argue that the solid population growth in some of their core states, such as Texas, demonstrates their competence in governing, while Democrats are likely to highlight other factors.
President-elect Donald Trump‘s pledge to tighten border security and deport millions of illegal migrants from the U.S. could have a dramatic impact on future state populations.