Texas

Increasing rain chances in San Antonio this week courtesy of a tropical system in the Gulf

June 17, 2024

  

As we’ve been reporting, the National Hurricane Center is calling for potential development in the Gulf of Mexico this week. We are beginning to get a clearer picture of what may unfold and rain chances are in the forecast for San Antonio.

KEY POINTS

  • A broad area of low pressure is likely to organize this week in the Gulf of Mexico; the National Hurricane Center is now giving it a high chance (70%) of development
  • Latest indications continue to suggest that this system would move west towards Mexico, with the higher impacts staying well south of our area
  • However, the area of low pressure will throw deep, tropical moisture and rain north into parts of the state
  • The question will be how far north this tropical moisture will reach
  • As of now, scattered tropical downpours are forecast to develop on Wednesday and Thursday, along with cooler temperatures
  • The highest rain totals will be near the coast, but totals in the range of at least 2″-3″ are looking possible closer to San Antonio

THE LATEST

An area of low pressure near the Yucatan Peninsula Sunday evening is forecasted to move over the Western Gulf of Mexico this week. Development into at least a tropical depression is possible, with the National Hurricane Center now putting the odds of development at 70%. The latest indications are this system will move west/northwest towards Mexico. This would keep any major impacts south of our area. However, as it moves closer to the coast, deep, tropical moisture and rain associated with the low will be thrown north into Texas, allowing for tropical-type downpours to develop, mainly on Wednesday and Thursday.

Scattered tropical downpours are still looking likely by Wednesday and Thursday.

QUESTIONS

With the low yet to cross over the warm waters of the Gulf, there still remain some uncertainties, specifically when it comes to it’s exact path and resulting rainfall totals. Should the system move farther south, that could draw away some of the better moisture from our area, limiting rain chances and totals. Obviously, a more northern path would bring better odds of rainfall and higher rain amounts. Also, a more developed, organized system would tend to limit rainfall to a smaller area. As of now, totals in the range of at least 2″-3″+ are looking possible near San Antonio, with higher totals closer to the coast and lower totals across the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau. Know that this range may need to be adjusted either up or down over the next few days as we start to get a clearer pictures of exactly where this system will track and how far north it’s tropical moisture will reach.

TROPICAL STORM NAMES FOR 2024

While details will still need to be fine-tuned in regards to how this system will evolve, we know that it’s forecast to be a busy season across the Atlantic Basin. Here is the list of names that will be used for tropical storms and hurricanes this season.

List of Tropical Cyclone names for the Atlantic Basin