As Iranian forces continue to build up and prepare to launch an attack on Israel – an attack that could come as early as this week – some of the Islamic Republic’s officials are publicly stating that only a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will stop it.
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But the amassing forces are set to possibly strike before third-party peace talks are set to begin on Thursday, complicating matters. The U.S., Qatar, and Egypt invited Israel and Hamas to a sit down for peace talks this Thursday, but there are concerns that Iran could attack later on Tuesday or on Wednesday.
“We hope our response will be timed and executed in a way that does not harm a potential ceasefire,” Iran’s mission to the U.N. said in a statement last week.
“The Iranians openly signal (on the ground) their determination to carry out a significant attack in addition to their public statements that the attack will exceed the one they carried out in April,” an Israeli official told Axios on Monday. “Iranian public statements do not reflect any retreat.”
But Iranian officials are threatening to take action if Israel “appears” to be stalling, though they don’t explain how they’ll measure that.
DUBAI/BEIRUT, Aug 13 (Reuters) – Only a ceasefire deal in Gaza stemming from hoped-for talks this week would hold Iran back from direct retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on its soil, three senior Iranian officials said.
Iran has vowed a severe response to Haniyeh’s killing, which took place as he visited Tehran late last month and which it blamed on Israel. Israel has neither confirmed or denied its involvement. The U.S. Navy has deployed warships and a submarine to the Middle East to bolster Israeli defenses.
One of the sources, a senior Iranian security official, said Iran, along with allies such as Hezbollah, would launch a direct attack if the Gaza talks fail or it perceives Israel is dragging out negotiations. The sources did not say how long Iran would allow for talks to progress before responding.
With an increased risk of a broader Middle East war after the killings of Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, Iran has been involved in intense dialogue with Western countries and the United States in recent days on ways to calibrate retaliation, said the sources, who all spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
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The U.S. is working with allies in the region, including NATO ally Turkey, to try and convince Iran to de-escalate.
Iran is believed to have funded and trained Hamas to carry out the October 7 massacre that killed hundreds of Israeli citizens. They are a noted backer of terror organizations in the Middle East and around the world, including Hamas and Hezbollah, the latter of whom has joined in the attacks on Israel at its northern border.
Expanded war in the Middle East could have dozens of global implications, particularly in the U.S., where foreign policy could play a role in the narrow presidential race between current Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump.