AUSTIN (KXAN) — It’s a question we’ve been getting a lot over the last few days, “Is Central Texas done with wintry weather this winter?”
Next week…
Let’s talk near-term. For January? The answer is a firm YES! Yes, we are done with wintry weather for January.
Over the next seven days, temperatures will climb out of the 50s and into the 60s and 70s. We’re forecasting mid to upper 70s for the first few days of February too with every night staying above freezing.
The week after…
What about the rest of February?
The extended outlooks (8-14 days from now) also point to warmer than normal temperatures, which would indicate good odds for avoiding a freeze and any wintry precipitation through February 11.
Climatologically speaking…
History suggests we’re probably not done with freezes or wintry precipitation.
During the 30-year climatological average period from 1991-2020, our average final freeze of the colder months came on February 15.
More recently four out of the last five years have had freezes go LATER than average.
Looking back further, the latest freezes ever have continued into March or even April!
Now, we don’t have to have wintry precipitation with those late freezes, but it suggests that the cold may not be over.
What about snow?
February is usually our snowiest month with Austin averaging 0.2″ of snow for the month. This is the only month that averages any meaningful snow at all in Austin.
We’ve already had double that snowfall this January, but we know snow can come in February too. Just think back to 2021 to “Snowmageddon” with a storm that brought almost 6.5″ of snow to Austin around Valentine’s Day!
The latest we’ve had measurable snow in Austin was March 27, 1930, with 0.1″ of new snow reported.
But, typically snow has been hard to come by after mid-February.
Only seven years since 1898 have experienced measurable snow in Austin after February 15 during the winter/spring seasons.
Why? Our days are already getting longer and our climatological average temperatures are already climbing. The “window of opportunity” for wintry precipitation rapidly shrinks during the second half of February.
That said, other parts of Central Texas stay colder for longer. The Hill Country would see the risk for snow or other wintry precipitation lasting later into February.
The Wild Card
Keep an eye on February 6-15. Despite the 8-14 day outlooks mentioned above showing our warmer pattern continuing, some of our long-term computer models give us a shot at some colder air during this window. Beyond that, it would be hard to see wintry precipitation making a comeback in Central Texas, but some later-than-normal freezes can’t be ruled out quite yet.
