Is Texas about to put a Democrat in the Senate?

Ted Cruz is one of the most high-profile Republicans in the U.S. Senate. He is also one of the most vulnerable — and he has a fight on his hands in Texas.

Cruz is “fighting for his political survival,” said The New York Times. His reelection race against challenger Colin Allred, a Democratic congressman and former football star, is “increasingly competitive.” Polls show Cruz clinging to a slim, single-digit lead. That has some GOP officials “concerned” that Cruz could lose the seat, said the Times. If so, Republicans could also lose the opportunity to reclaim the majority in the Senate. “The current reality is that Texas is too close for comfort,” said Matt Mackowiak, who leads the Travis County Republican Party.

Democrats have “long faced hurdles in the Lone Star State,” said The Hill. “For a Democrat to win statewide Texas, it’s a big lift. It’s a heavy lift,” said a Democratic PAC leader. But Donald Trump won the state by just under 6 points in 2020. Democrats in Texas have been “closer and closer,” said one strategist, and “pretty soon closer is going to be close enough.”

Cruz’s reelection bid is in the “‘safe bet’ category,” Jim Geraghty said at the National Review. We’ve seen these kinds of challenges before — when Jamie Harrison raised $130 million on the way to losing to Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), when Amy McGrath raised $88 million to fall to Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, or even when Beto O’Rourke became a national sensation while losing to, yes, Ted Cruz in 2018. This looks like more of the same. “It doesn’t really matter if your Democratic neighbor down the street thinks that Allred can beat Cruz,” said Geraghty.

“Could Donald Trump inadvertently help Democrats win Ted Cruz’s seat?” Chris Tomlinson said at The Houston Chronicle. At least one poll shows Allred closer to beating Cruz than O’Rourke was in 2018. And national polling has suggested that Kamala Harris is benefitting from a surge of Democratic voter enthusiasm that could boost down-ballot candidates, even in Texas. “If Trump bombs and Harris soars,” Tomlinson said, “Allred could win.”

What next?

Allred’s campaign is getting a big boost: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced last week it is “sending millions to Texas” to support his challenge to Cruz, said The Texas Tribune. Democrats have worried about losing control of the U.S. Senate in this election cycle — they have several “difficult” seats to defend, including that of Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.). Now they see an opportunity to flip expectations. “Senate Democrats are expanding the map and going on offense,” said DSCC Chair Sen. Gary Peters.

Cruz has long been known as a conservative firebrand — now he’s trying to “rebrand” himself as a bipartisan senator, said Politico. “What is new is not that I’m passing bipartisan legislation that helps produce jobs in Texas,” Cruz said. He has been touting his efforts to protect in-vitro fertilization, as well as his participation in cross-party bills for hurricane relief and trade across the Rio Grande. There is a good reason for him to stake his claim to a broader ideological identity, Politico said: “Even if he hasn’t changed, Texas has.”