Is the ‘Kamala Effect’ Going to Send Ohio’s Sherrod Brown Packing?

A new poll by Morning Consult shows GOP challenger Bernie Moreno leading Democrat incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown 47-46. Somehow, Sherrod Brown has managed to weaponize ticket-splitters in Ohio. In his last race, he beat Republican Jim Renacci by seven points, even though Trump carried the stated by eight points in 2020. In 2012, Brown bested Josh Mandel by six, and Obama carried the state by three. Brown is second on Roll Call’s list of the seven most vulnerable senators.

I’m a poll skeptic but I put some store in this one. In 2018, at this point, Brown was leading Renacci by six points. Even though the RCP average has Brown leading by 2.6 points, the individual polls show him in freefall. In September, Brown was up by five, but he’s been +1 in three of the last four polls and up by two in the other. This poll is by Morning Consult, a poll that I think breaks crazy Democrat. 

In its last three national polls, Morning Consult had Harris leading by four, five, and six points even though Trump leads in Ohio by eight. The odds of Brown beating Kamala’s vote tally by 12 to 16 points appoaches √-1. Kamala has none of the goodwill that Joe Biden had and despite what the left wants you to believe the issue of illegal Haitians in cities like Springfield, Ohio, taking American jobs by working for substandard wages and running American citizens out of rental housing thanks to US government housing vouchers has resonated.

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A win here would mean that, all else being equal, Chuck Schumer would be removed as Senate Majority leader should Trump win the election. It would also provide Ohio with much better representation than it’s had since 2006.