AUSTIN (Nexstar) — As Texans brace for frigid temperatures descending on most of the state early next week, some still fret about the fallout of the deadly February 2021 blackout. State leaders are reassuring Texans the state is prepared to avoid the worst of our winter memories, while also preparing for the worst-case scenarios.
ERCOT predicts a nearly one-in-six chance of rolling blackouts if conditions mirror Winter Storm Elliot, the December 2022 storm that kept parts of Texas at or below freezing for as long as three days.
In a December 2023 outlook, ERCOT reports a 14.66% chance of “controlled outages” if conditions reach a similar severity. Absent those conditions, the chance of outages drops to less than 3%.
“Under typical grid conditions, the deterministic scenario indicates that there should be sufficient generating capacity available to serve the expected peak load,” the report states.
“Ready and reliable”
Gov. Abbott was adamant in December that the Texas grid is ready.
“Texas and the grid are better prepared than we’ve ever been,” Gov. Abbott said on Dec. 14.
“The power grid is as ready and reliable as it has ever been for the winter season,” ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas said. “We have more generating and dispatchable resources available to the grid than we have had in any prior winter in history. So we are ready for that.”
Since February 2021, power plants have winterized and ERCOT has conducted more than 1,500 inspections, Vegas said.
“I think the weatherization requirements for the electric power plants have certainly helped. I think the legislature requiring the Railroad Commission to act and improve weatherization for the natural gas delivery system was probably helpful,” University of Houston Energy Fellow Ed Hirs told Nexstar.
Dr. Josh Rhodes, research director with the Webber Energy Group at UT Austin, agrees this week will likely not pose significant issues. He says the drier climate will allow wind energy in West Texas to perform well.
“We’re entering the storm a little bit differently than we did coming into Winter Storm Uri, Rhodes said. “It’s not going to be as wet or as cold for as long… I think it’s just a bit of a different story. But that doesn’t mean we might not have issues on the system.”
“ERCOT weather roulette”
Hirs noted that, while this year’s ERCOT outlook predicts a one-in-six chance of blackouts, ERCOT predicted just a one-in-twenty chance of blackouts in Feb. 2021. He’s concerned the supply will not meet peak demand without renewable sources supplementing fossil fuels.
“As we play ERCOT weather roulette, if we come up a loser, we come up a loser no matter what the governor says,” Hirs said. “ERCOT is forecasting a peak demand on Monday night that’s really like a summer day — over 80,000 megawatts. We do not have enough coal, natural gas, and nuclear power plants and batteries that we can turn on to match that 80,000 megawatts. Keep in mind, the sun doesn’t contribute if it happens at night, and the wind won’t contribute if there’s freezing precipitation.”
“We just have less information about how winterized the natural gas system is, and it provides about 40% of our electricity. So we need to make sure that the entire system is good to go,” Dr. Rhodes said.
Long-term planning
Last year, the legislature passed into law a plan meant to incentivize energy companies to build more natural gas power plants. The state is offering loans to build plants and other financial incentives meant to ensure companies have enough power when grid conditions are tight. The power-plant-building plan could cost the state as much as $18 billion.
Dr. Rhodes called the plan a “temporary stopgap measure,” but doubted the ability of the state to continue the program in the long term.
“I don’t really see it as a long-term solution unless we decide to subsidize the construction of power plants long term, which isn’t how we do electricity necessarily in Texas,” Rhodes said. “I’d rather take a more holistic approach to the system.”
Hirs argued that more power plants won’t necessarily lead to more energy supply.
“If we built 20 new power plants on the grid, we would only ensure that the price stayed down,” Hirs said. “If I’m a power company with 20 power plants on the ERCOT grid and so far this winter I’ve only had to run 12, why would I put the other eight online? If I do, then I just make sure that the price stays at the average of $50 a megawatt hour. If I don’t click those eight online, then I make sure that my other 12 will get $5,000 a megawatt hour during the cold front.”
This week’s arctic air is expected to hit Texas late Saturday and linger until Wednesday.
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