It’s official: El Ni?o has returned!
In a diagnostic discussion issued by the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, forecasters say that El Ni?o conditions are present and are expected to strengthen into the winter months in the Northern Hemisphere.
In order to understand El Ni?o (and La Ni?a, for that matter), we first need to touch on the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
ENSO is the climate pattern involving changing sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Warming and cooling cycles of ENSO affect weather patterns across the United States, and also impact rainfall distribution in the tropics.
Forecasters say that weak El Ni?o conditions appeared earlier this spring as sea-surface temperatures started to warm in the Pacific Ocean. Since then, these temperatures have stayed in the warmer-than-average range, and atmospheric convection has enhanced over the equator in this region as well. Scientists say that this ocean-atmosphere relationship proves the emergence of El Ni?o conditions.
Going forward, El Ni?o conditions are expected to continue, and even strengthen, into the 2023-2024 winter months in the Northern Hemisphere.
An El Ni?o Advisory has been issued, meaning just that: El Ni?o conditions have been observed and are expected to continue.
El Ni?o conditions typically mean cooler and wetter conditions for Texas winters, since the Pacific jet stream is positioned farther south. This then allows for more frequent weather systems to work their way into our area.
This could be good news as we continue to chip away at the drought, but we also may need to watch out for flash flooding down the road. We’ll keep you posted!