Karl Rove has some opinions on the state of the 2024 presidential election, and as we’ve come to expect, he gets some things right – and some wrong.
Here’s what Mr. Rove gets right:
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On the big issues, Mr. Trump has voters’ confidence, though his lead is dwindling. The Aug. 13 ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll found him 9 points up on handling inflation and the economy and 10 points on the border. He errs each time he doesn’t focus on these issues.
Ms. Harris, on other hand, is personally more compelling. By 30 points, voters in that same poll said she had the better “physical health to serve effectively.” Voters also believed, by between 7 and 15 points, that she’s more “honest and trustworthy,” is mentally sharper, and better “understands the problems” of people like them.
Now, I’m not buying that “personally more compelling” bit. Personally, I find Kamala Harris to be abrasive, phony, and off-putting, and most of the folks in my social and professional circles feel likewise. But that’s not really relevant; we’re electing a president, not a next-door neighbor. What’s more relevant is that the voting public trusts Trump more on the two biggest issues of the election cycle: The economy/inflation and the border. I’m also not buying the “honest and trustworthy” bit, but more on that in a moment.
Here’s what Mr. Rove gets wrong:
Kamala Harris’s successful convention earned her a polling bump. She’s ahead by 1.7 points in the RealClearPolitics national average against Donald Trump and by 3.4 points in FiveThirtyEight’s metric. Post-convention highs usually dip, but Ms. Harris’s probably won’t. Her upward movement stems not from momentary enthusiasm but previously dispirited Democrats coming home. In another race, that would have happened soon after the primaries ended.
Is the surge enough for her to win? Not if it doesn’t keep growing. Hillary Clinton carried the nationwide popular vote in 2016 by 2.1 points and lost. Joe Biden led the popular vote by 4.5 points and won narrowly. We also don’t yet have a precise picture of this year’s battlegrounds, as there aren’t enough good state polls to construct a reliable average.
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Karl, Karl, Karl. There is no national popular vote; that national average isn’t a very good indicator, especially in a close race like this one is going to be. The battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, are where the election will be decided. As of this writing, in the RealClearPolitics averages on those states, both candidates are running neck-and-neck – in most cases within the margin of error. Trump appears to be regaining a little momentum, but it’s way too soon to draw any conclusions, although in a week or two, the picture may be dramatically different – or it may not.
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And here’s where Mr. Rove completely swings – and misses.
Ms. Harris’s path to victory is obvious. She should highlight her positive personal qualities while narrowing Mr. Trump’s advantages on key issues by offering moderate policies and distancing herself from the Biden administration.
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What Mr. Rove gets wrong is assuming Kamala Harris has any positive personal qualities – if she has any, she’s done an awfully good job of concealing them for so long – and in assuming that anyone will believe her “offering moderate policies” after spending so many years on the “progressive” left. Nobody with enough brains to pound sand is going to believe that. The brutal fact is that Kamala Harris is not honest; she has shown herself, like her running mate, to be a person of pure expedience, saying whatever she thinks will appeal to whoever she is talking to at any given moment. In other words, she’s a politician. Trump, for whatever flaws he has, does not do that. What you see is what you get.
Ultimately this election, like most presidential contests, will come down to economics, and there Trump holds all the cards. His approval numbers on the economy and the border have held pretty steady for months, and those numbers are not likely to change in the next few weeks.
The next major event of the cycle is the September 10th debate, assuming it comes off as planned. If Donald Trump can put down as decisive a win as he did against befuddled old Joe Biden, he will regain the momentum he needs. And there’s no reason to think he won’t be able to reduce her to her usual confusing word salads, which will make her look like what she really is: Poorly informed and, frankly, not very bright.
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