AUSTIN (KXAN) — Every geographic region has its own complexities when it comes to forecasting. In Texas? Arguably – Winter weather. But why?
Factors that complicate winter storms in our area
First and foremost, it’s hard to get cold air this far south. These Arctic air masses originate in, well, where else but the Arctic! That said, these cold air masses then sink south, traveling 3,000-4,000+ miles to Texas and modifying as they do. (And thank goodness they do! For perspective, areas closer to the source, like Fargo, North Dakota, are only expected to “warm” to -10° on Monday with our next Arctic air outbreak.)
Secondly, our proximity to the Gulf can throw a wrench in the forecast. Oftentimes, a storm system digging far enough south can pull warm, moist air to the north. Depending on the strength of the storm and the depth of the cold air already in place, this can sometimes lead to above-freezing layers above the surface.
If that layer of warm air is moderately deep in the column of air above us, then we run the risk of freezing rain. If that layer of warm air above us is sandwiched between two cold (below-freezing) layers, sleet is possible.
Another factor to consider is the topography differences. With parts of our Hill Country sitting at 1,000 feet above sea level… while areas closer to Austin are between 300-400 feet above sea level, this difference can be enough to give some a wintry mix, and others, just rain.
As we saw last week, it’s important to find a trusted source for weather information. The forecast can, and often will, change and become more defined up until the event, especially in the case of winter weather.
We encourage you to stick with the KXAN First Warning Weather team for all weather-related updates.