Texas

National Hurricane Center flags an area to watch in the Gulf of Mexico next week. What does that mean for San Antonio?

June 13, 2024

  

With hurricane season underway, the National Hurricane Center is already flagging a few spots for potential development in the Atlantic. One is off the east coast of Florida and another is in the Gulf of Mexico. With that said, know that NOTHING has developed, and organization, IF ANY, would take place SLOWLY next week. As for local impacts, it’s far too early to talk anything specific, but there are some indications that some deeper tropical moisture could move in our direction, upping rain chances a bit.

KEY POINTS

  • Models are pointing to a broad area of low pressure taking shape in the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
  • There is a low-end chance of organization (30%), according to the National Hurricane Center, with any system moving westward.
  • Regardless of any development, models try to bring some of the tropical moisture inland along the Texas coast.
  • This *could* bring some rain chances to South Texas and San Antonio.
  • Much will hinge on the evolution of the system.

THE LATEST

A broad area of low pressure is forecast by computer models to take shape early next week. Until it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, specifics will be impossible to discuss. However, there are indications that deeper tropical moisture, associated with the disturbance, could move toward the Texas coast Tuesday into Wednesday. Often when this happens, tropical-type downpours can develop around the area.

Deeper tropical moisture may arrive to the Texas coast as early as Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. (KSAT 12 2024)

DIFFERENT SCENARIOS

Many different scenarios could play out. For us, it appears the more advantageous outcome would be for a disorganized low pressure to move west across the Gulf, slinging deep, tropical moisture in our direction. Should organization take place, this would make for a more compact system, limiting impacts to a smaller area. This could be anywhere along the Mexican coast up to Texas. Should an organized system move towards Mexico, we could miss out on rain chances altogether.

TROPICAL STORM NAMES FOR 2024

While there are NO indications, as of now, that this will be a named storm, we do know that it is forecast to be a busy season across the Atlantic Basin. Here is the list of names that will be used for tropical storms and hurricanes this season.

List of Tropical Cyclone names for the Atlantic Basin

SAHARAN DUST

Every year we get plumes of dust from the Saharan Desert in Africa. It traverses the Atlantic, carried by upper-level winds. Our first round of “moderate” dust appears to arrive Monday of next week, ahead of this potential system. Often, the only impacts are hazy skies, but occasionally, if it’s thick enough, it can affect those with allergies.

Saharan dust may move into the area ahead of the tropical wave on Monday. (KSAT 12 2024)