AUSTIN (KXAN) — Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian knows what he’s walking into on Saturday. He knows Vanderbilt is going to try to play a game of keep-away, similar to what Mississippi State attempted against the Longhorns, and his team will have to make the most of its possessions.
So is he concerned about his team’s recent slow offensive starts in Southeastern Conference play?
“I’m not concerned at all,” he said. “We’ve had some opportunities on opening drives that we haven’t capitalized on, but our players have a lot of confidence in what we do early in the game, it just hasn’t hit exactly as we want it to. But we believe in our process to get guys ready to play.”
A quick start against the No. 25 Commodores would bode well for the No. 5 Longhorns. With a run-heavy, possession-based offense predicated on quarterback Diego Pavia’s ability to make quick run-pass option reads, there’s no telling when they’ll get the ball back. Vanderbilt is the No. 11 FBS team in average time of possession, holding the ball for roughly 33 minutes per game, and they simply don’t give it back. The Commodores have turned it over twice this season, a lost fumble and an interception, tied for second-least with Navy among FBS programs.
MORE THAN THE SCORE: Stay up to date on sports stories like these, and sign up for our More than the Score sports newsletter at kxan.com/newsletters
The Commodores are 5-0 in games when they’ve held opponents to less than 70 plays. Texas averages 70 plays per game this season and Vanderbilt, on average, allows teams to run 59. In the two losses for Vanderbilt, Georgia State and Missouri, the Panthers ran 75 plays and the Tigers ran 77.
It’ll be of utmost importance to the Longhorns to not count their plays, but to make their plays count.
“Everybody has their own formula for success, and I give Vanderbilt a lot of credit. They play to their style,” he said. “We’ve seen that formula be presented at us, even against uptempo teams, that ended up milking the clock and shortening the game. In an ideal world, you get the lead and then they feel they have to try to come back and we get them out of their comfort zone.”
Vanderbilt’s offense is roughly a 65-35 run-pass split and the Commodores put themselves in advantageous positions to convert third down. They are the No. 8 team in FBS in third down conversion rate at 52.1%, and that’s a product of that steady rushing offense that chews up yardage. Once teams commit to the run too much, Pavia is a good enough passer to make teams pay in play-action calls and hit receivers over the top for big gains.
Texas certainly has to be better than it was against Georgia when running the ball, but to be fair, Vanderbilt’s front seven isn’t as talented as the Bulldogs’. Texas had 38 yards at halftime against Georgia and trailed 23-0. The Longhorns’ offensive line will have to assert itself early.
Injury report: Mukuba doubtful
On the initial SEC injury report Wednesday, Texas safety Andrew Mukuba was listed as doubtful for the game with a knee injury and wide receiver Isaiah Bond was downgraded from questionable to doubtful in Thursday’s update.
Vanderbilt had a few key players listed as questionable Wednesday, but they were all upgraded to probable Thursday. Sedrick Alexander, the former LBJ standout and Austin ISD all-time leading rusher, along with AJ Newberry are listed on the report along with tight end Eli Stowers. Stowers had six catches for 113 yards in Vanderbilt’s 40-35 win over Alabama on Oct. 5.
The game kicks off at 3:15 p.m. from a sold-out FirstBank Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee, and airs on the SEC Network.