We’ve seen a lot of positive movement for Republicans in both the Senate and the House races. RealClearPolitics predicted a few days ago that the GOP would take the Senate and their projection is also that the Republicans would take the House. Things are still looking good in the Senate, particularly after Blake Masters and J.D. Vance massacred their Democratic opponents in their debates and a bombshell report dropped on Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) that’s likely to hurt him in his race against Herschel Walker.
Now there’s more good news. According to a new CNN poll, Republicans are leading in battleground congressional districts with likely voters.
Among likely voters in competitive districts, 48 percent would support the Republican candidate, while only 43 percent said they would support the Democrat, according to the poll. That’s a five percent advantage for the Democrats in those important districts. The Republicans only need to pick up five seats to take control of the House, and it’s those competitive districts that are going to determine the race.
Republicans also led Democrats among those who say they are extremely motivated to vote this year, with 52 percent of registered Republicans and 46 percent of registered Democrats saying they are particularly motivated, the poll found.
This lead expands among voters in competitive districts, with 55 percent of registered Republicans saying they are extremely motivated to head to the polls, compared to 45 percent of Democrats.
Amid concerns about a potential recession, the economy and inflation remain key issues for voters, with 59 percent saying the economy is extremely important to their vote and 56 percent saying the same of inflation. In competitive congressional districts, this increased to 67 percent on the economy and 64 percent on inflation, according to the poll.
Part of that is how bad Joe Biden is doing in these battleground states, with his approval underwater by double-digits in most of the states. Inflation is the top issue for most voters and they rightly blame Joe Biden and the Democrats for that.
There’s another bad sign in the poll for Democrats — that the traditional groups that they count on for support are less likely to come out to vote for them in this election.
The demographic divides the poll reveals ahead of this election suggest that core Democratic groups such as younger voters, Black and Latino voters, and even to some degree women, are expressing less support for Democratic candidates than they have in recent past elections. A CNN Poll among registered voters in early October 2018 found that 59% of women backed Democratic candidates in their district; now, 53% do. Among voters of color, 69% backed Democrats then but 59% do now. Latino voters break 52% for the Democrats, 23% for the Republican and 21% say they support neither candidate. Black voters split 81% for the Democrat to 11% for the Republican. And among voters younger than the age of 45, Democrats held a 15-point advantage in 2018 compared with just 8 points now. Likely voters in each of these groups currently tilt a bit more Democratic than registered voters, but motivation to vote among younger voters and voters of color is markedly lower than among older voters or White voters.
That’s a killer, particularly when it comes to the tight races in competitive districts.