Welcome to a look at the 136th week of Putin’s War in Ukraine.
My apologies for missing an update last week, but I just couldn’t seem to pull it together.
The big story of the last two weeks was Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s trip to the US. What started out as a trip to the UN General Assembly managed to mushroom into a political self-immolation as Zelensky seemed to be on the campaign trail for Kamala Harris. See Mike Johnson Demands Firing of Ukraine’s Ambassador After Zelensky’s Campaign Swing Through Pennsylvania – RedState for all the details. As it turned out, Zelensky did not meet with Mike Johnson, but he did meet with Donald Trump.
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Discussions with Jake Sullivan and the self-important midwits collected about him on the subject of using American weapons against targets in Russia remain unsettled.
Russian President Vladimir Putin also sent an unsubtle message to Donald Trump should he win. Trump’s “make a deal” attitude is going nowhere with Putin.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sept. 30 vowed that “all the intended goals will be achieved” in Ukraine, in a speech marking the second anniversary of something the Kremlin has yet to achieve.
In a video message to the Russian public, Putin said he was addressing his people to “celebrate the Day of Reunification with Russia of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, Zaporizhia and Kherson Regions.”
To achieve that goal, Ukraine would have to give up its access to the Black Sea and withdraw from substantial amounts of real estate that it currently occupies. Each statement like this just emphasizes that Putin has “burned his boats,” and he is not in the mood to negotiate anything less than the surrender and dismemberment of Ukraine.
Here are some of my past updates.
Putin’s War, Week 133. Turmoil in Kursk and Long-Range Strikes Into Russia Possible
Putin’s War, Week 132. Russia’s Missile Blitz Meets Ukraine’s Drone Blitz – RedState
Putin’s War, Week 128. Russia Invaded – RedState
Putin’s War, Week 127. F-16s Arrive
Putin’s War, Week 125. North Korea Sending Food to Russia Was Not on My Bingo Card
Putin’s War, Week 124. NATO Summit Meets and Putin Levels a Hospital
For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.
Politico-Strategic Level
Putin Cancels Census
…and Gets a Birthday Present
Iran Rethinks Its Support for Russia’s War
Poland Draws Red Lines
Poland has been the most aggressive NATO member in confronting Russia since Putin’s tanks invaded Ukraine nearly three years ago. Polish President Andrzej Duda recently made statements that I think will be more important once Joe Biden leaves the White House.
As I’ve said several times, the Poles have seen what kind of clusterf*** the Russian military is, and they are chomping at the bit for any reason to get in a few licks.
Game Changer
Russia and Burkina Faso agree not to put weapons in space.
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It’s Not Burkina Faso
Russian Economy Invigorated
A couple of months ago, I posted about a scheme where North Korea was exporting apples to Russia because not enough North Koreans were starving or something (Putin’s War, Week 125. North Korea Sending Food to Russia Was Not on My Bingo Card). It must have been a success because now, according to the Russian state news agency TASS, Russia is trading chickpeas and lentils to Pakistan in exchange for tangerines and rice.
Ukrainian Cities Under Attack
Wildly Successful
A few weeks ago, Russia announced it was inviting Westerners fed up with the cultural rot to immigrate to Russia and experience cultural and spiritual rot. There were a couple of takers, both on the run from kiddie-porn charges. It looks like the appeal of living in Russia was lost on the people who haunt the comments section here.
With Friends Like This…
Operational Level
I’m forgoing the usual maps this week because the most reliable sources are also mapping the war against Hezbollah, and the best Ukrainian sources have increased OPSEC.
The general picture is that the front in Kursk remains stable, but the Russians have put on a full-court press along the Luhansk and Donetsk fronts. Ukraine has given up some of the gains of the last couple of weeks in Vovchansk, Kharkiv. The big tactical story is Ukraine abandoning Vuldehar in southern Donetsk. The fighting around this city has raged for 18 months and hasn’t left the Russians in any position to exploit the gain, but a hard-fought loss is still a loss.
The Russians broke a month-long drought in high-volume missile launches last night, firing an Iskander-M, a Kh-59 cruise missile, three Kh-57 “hypersonic” missiles, and 80 Shahed. Two of the “hypersonic missiles and 32 Shahed were shot down. At least 37 Shahed crashed en route or were downed by electronic warfare devices. There wasn’t a readily available report on damage.
Despite the high volume of attacks in some areas, the overall number of Russian offensive actions has flattened and may be in decline.
This week’s most significant item was the compromise of a highly classified Russian drone, the Sukhoi S-70 Okhotnik-B stealth heavy unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV).
How did this happen? It started out looking like a Red-on-Red friendly fire incident and was initially reported as such by multiple sources.
At this point, the consensus is that the Su-35 was escorting the S-70 UCAV when ground control lost contact with it. Then, the Su-35 was ordered to shoot it down.
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The wreckage landed in Ukrainian territory, and then it was discovered to be that of a classified UCAV. The other discovery was that nothing about it was stealthy.
Naturally, there are those with the opinion that this is some sort of 5-D chess with a fake S-70 deliberately dropped onto Ukraine to befuddle Western intelligence. Sorry, guys, I’ve heard that story before. On September 6, 1976, Soviet Air Force Lieutenant Viktor Belenko defected by flying his MiG-25P “Foxbat” aircraft from near Vladivostok to Hakodate Airport in Japan. At the time, the MiG-25 was a mystery plane that kept NATO intelligence geeks constantly reaching for a new pair of brown trousers. The examination of the MiG-25 proved it was rather unsophisticated in construction and flight performance. This started the intelligence folks baying that Belenko was a fake defector and his plane equally fake. Why? Because it is more fun to spend billions of dollars defeating an unbeatable boogeyman than to address the real threat. In fact, that, in retrospect, was the theme of the Cold War.
Dead North Koreans
Romania Scrambles Fighters
If anything has the potential of dragging more nations into Putin’s War, it is not the danger of Putin popping a nuke somewhere. The most likely spark is the reckless indiscipline of the Russian military.
The Russians targeted a border crossing checkpoint between Odesa and Romania.
Romania scrambled four F-16s, two of theirs and two Spanish NATO augmentees, when the incoming drones were detected.
Poland has made noises about providing air cover over Western Ukraine because of the number of Russian drones and missiles that use navigational checkpoints inside Poland.
It should be noted that Russia has avoided attacking any of the border crossings used to ship arms to Ukraine and is now attacking a purely civilian one. That is totally on-brand for Russia in this war.
Commander of Russian Drone Academy Assassinated
Finally, Incompetence Is Becoming Painful
About three months ago, I posted on the firing of Ukrainian General Yuriy Sodol because of complaints brought by subordinate commanders that he had no regard for the lives of soldiers; see Putin’s War, Week 122. Zelensky Scores, Putin Flops, and Crimea Under Fire. Now, the ante has been upped. Sodoo faces criminal charges for his actions while in command of the Kherson front. The most public accusation came from the Azov Battalion chief of staff Bohdan Krotevych, not a guy one would associate with a reluctance to fight. The State Bureau of Investigation tried to punt on the case, claiming that even if true, being stupid and negligent wasn’t criminal (okay, that’s my interpretation of their decision, not their words). The court disagreed.
On Monday, the Kyiv Court of Appeal, after reviewing the appeal, ordered the SBI to initiate proceedings against Gen. Sodol. “According to the new decision, within one day of receiving a copy of the court’s ruling, the SBI must begin an investigation into military service negligence,” the ruling states.
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Zelensky must make it a priority to remove this cadre of incompetents, who have been protected by the “good ol’ boy” network, from the military and from any position that can influence it. They have caused too much damage to be allowed to retain power.
Russia Uses Elon Musk’s Starlink to Guide Drone
I’ve posted a few times on the ongoing saga of how Elon Musk’s Starlink is used by Russian forces despite that company’s denials.
BACKGROUND:
Putin’s War, Week 102. Zaluzhny Is Out, Syrsky Is In, and the Ukraine Aid Bill Advances
Putin’s War, Week 103. Avdiivka Abandoned
Putin’s War, Week 105. Sweden Prepares to Be Heard
Putin’s War, Week 109. Russian Offensive Jammed Up While Ukraine Funding Logjam Breaks – RedState
Putin’s War, Week 115. ATACMS Makes a Splash and Russia Opens a New Front – RedState
Putin’s War, Week 122. Zelensky Scores, Putin Flops, and Crimea Under Fire – RedState
The problem is twofold. First, Starlink is hiding behind sanctions against Russia to make Starlink inaccessible inside Russian territory. This prevents Ukraine from using it on their deep-strike weapons. Then, it allows its Chinese resellers to sell the product in Russia, where it is bought and shipped to Russian forces in Ukraine, where it can be used. It is getting increasingly hard to believe the company’s protestations of innocence.
A Shahed-136 drone with Starlink integrated into the weapon system was shot down a week ago. This shows that Starlink is sufficiently plentiful in Russia to be installed on expendable drones.
More Likely True Than False
Denmark Finances Ukrainian Defense Factory
French-German Defense Conglomerate Creates Ukrainian Subsidiary
This is a major get for Ukraine. Factories to build Leopard II tanks and Swedish CV-90 infantry fighting vehicles are spooling up, and we may see the first domestically manufactured CV-90s roll out in 2024. Getting KNDS to create a subsidiary is a major move.
The French-German conglomerate KNDS (KMW+Nexter Defense Systems) has opened a subsidiary in Ukraine, as announced in June.
The purpose of establishing KNDS Ukraine is to provide technical maintenance, repairs and overhauls of KNDS weaponry, including Leopard 1 and Leopard 2 tanks, Caesar artillery systems, AMX10 RC reconnaissance armoured vehicles, PzH 2000 howitzers, and Gepard anti-aircraft systems.
The subsidiary will support cooperation between Ukrainian government agencies, Ukraine’s defence industry, and KNDS.
Russian Motorcycle Attack Defeated
New Weapons
Big Deal, If True
President Zelensky announced that Ukraine had test-fired a domestically produced a new short-range ballistic missile.
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The story is not implausible. Ukraine has a domestic ballistic missile production capacity and the engineering experience to pull this off. If true, this missile has over twice the range of ATACMS, and if it can be produced at scale, it will make things very interesting for the Russian Air Force and previously out-of-range targets.
Combat Operations
Stalin Order 227 Returns
The Russians have used blocking units to prevent retreats since the early days of the war; see Putin’s War, Week 36. Russian Mobilization Ends, Ukrainian Commandos Strike Deep Inside Russia, and What the Heck Is Happening in Kherson? These are usually small groups of Chechens positioned so they can kill anyone fleeing from an action. There is evidence that Stalin Order 227 — which declared, “Panic makers and cowards must be liquidated on the spot. Not one step backward without orders from higher headquarters!” — may be in full effect.
Here, a group of Russian soldiers attempting to surrender are targeted by Russian artillery.
Prisoners of Wat Executed
On the other hand:
Russian Reinforced Battalion Attack Defeated by Drones
DPICM and Why the Anti-West Left (and Russians) Hate It
This is a DPICM strike on a Russian howitzer and it provides an object lesson in why people who try to weaken the West militarily through bullsh** arms treaties and conventions hate it. A single, unitary 155mm artillery round would probably have missed gun, perhaps giving it time to un-ass the area. Or several guns could’ve fired at the target, compromizing the location of those guns. Or you could lob a single DPICM round into the area.
Some Things Just Don’t Change
I’ve posted many times about the command and leadership problems in the Russian Army. This thread does a great job of laying out the impact of endemic servility and dishonesty. Ukraine teeters on the razor’s edge of going this way because centuries of totalitarianism die hard.
Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures
One-on-One
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“I Find Your Lack of Faith Disturbing”
I’ve witnessed something similar to this in the ROK Army. I suppose it works in some cultures. I wouldn’t try this with American troops around loaded weapons.
Related:
The Love Affair with the Bradley
The Bradley had a lot of development problems thanks to the efforts of the “military reformers,” who were upset that it couldn’t survive a tank main gun round. Thankfully, wiser heads prevailed and equipped the US Army with arguably the premier infantry fighting vehicle in the world. I’ve showcased some Bradleys in action, but crew survivability makes them heroes.
Drone vs. Drone
A Ukrainian FPV drone takes out a Russian ground drone armed with a machinegun.
Donbas
Vuhledar Falls
After 18 months of resistance, Ukrainian troops abandoned Vuhledar to avoid encirclement. The city is important to the Russian quest to completely occupy the territory within the administrative boundaries of Luhansk and Donetsk. It has a symbolic importance to Ukraine, but unless the Russians can convert their conquest into forward momentum, that is all it has. This is the third Ukrainian city, after Bakhmut and Avdiivka, that has fallen to grinding Russian attacks that lasted over a year.
Zaporizhzhia
Partisan Activity
Head of security for Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and a quisling instrumental in handing the facility over to the Russians without resistance, Andrey Korotky, was blown up in his car.
Rear Areas
Crimea
Oil Terminal, Feodosia, Crimea
Russia
Russian Minesweeper Sabotaged
This is the second known case of a Russian Navy ship being disabled by sabotage; see Putin’s War, Week 123. F-16s Wait in the Wings, More Weapons Arrive, and the Momentum Shifts.
Partisan Attack on Railroad, Kuibyshev, Samara Oblast
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Oil Storage Depots, Voronezh Oblast and Perm Krai
Ammunition Dump, Kotluban, Volgograd Oblast
Ammunition Dump, Tambov, Tambov Oblast
What’s Next
Both sides seem to have decided to wait on our Election Day before deciding what to do next year, but I think we are reaching a point where American influence vanishes. European defense industries are building facilities in Ukraine. Within a year, the debate over Ukraine using American weapons to attack targets deep in Russia will be mooted as domestically produced Ukrainian weapons will start to be seen on the battlefield. The US and EU taking steps to funnel profits from Russian assets to Ukraine’s war effort will remove the pain from taxpayers.
At this point, neither side has the combat power to force a settlement on the ground. I would argue that Russia can’t generate the power because its defense industrial base can’t replace losses, and its civilian and military manpower requirements far exceed the available pool. Ukraine is unwilling to bite the bullet and declare levee en masse because of political reasons and because it doesn’t have the gear to equip that many new soldiers or the facilities to train them.
The outlook for the ground war remains unchanged. Russia is focused on the complete occupation of Luhansk and Donetsk. The advances are coming at a helluva cost, indicating they have a political rather than operational motive. Completely occupying Donbas lets Putin say, “That’s all I ever wanted.” Kursk could be exchanged for Occupied Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, and suddenly, we have the basis for a cease-fire. Zelensky has hinted that a demilitarized Crimea is an acceptable substitute for Ukrainian control, and after the last two years, I’m not sure that Russia still sees Crimea as defensible. That could be the outline for a temporary halt to fighting, but Russia’s annexation of two oblasts mostly controlled by Ukraine and constituting its Black Sea coastline ensures that another round of fighting is inevitable in the near future.