Rash of injuries forces Rangers to test rotation depth early

ARLINGTON, Texas — Last season, the Texas Rangers gambled on a pitching staff with a history of injuries and backed it up with a lack of depth before rolling snake eyes. 

From Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle starting off the season compromised as they recovered from Tommy John surgery to Cody Bradford suffering an unforeseen injury that took him out for much of the summer, to Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, and Jon Gray each hitting the shelf multiple times, the Rangers hoped for health and instead rang up mileage on the Round Rock to Arlington shuttle on their way to a disappointing third-place finish in the American League West.

This season, hope was refreshed, as deGrom and Mahle both enjoyed a healthy offseason and entered the year eyeing their first full seasons after rehab. Combined with the re-signing of Eovaldi, and a rotation replete with talented veterans and youngsters waiting in the wings, things were looking up for the Rangers’ rotation. 

Ultimately, Texas did not escape the pitching apocalypse that struck throughout spring training camps over the last month. Instead, after a relatively uneventful spring from the pitching side leading up to the final few days in Arizona, the Rangers experienced a brutal week with injuries in bulk to their rotation, one which could cause the front office and coaching staff to potentially pivot quickly and one that will already test the depth that the team worked to solidify over the winter.

The rotation purge began on March 11 when Tyler Mahle was scratched from his start with forearm soreness. While Mahle’s MRI came back clean, since he is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and forearm soreness is often the beginning of more elbow issues, the Rangers opted for an abundance of caution with his return process. Mahle is now back on the mound and may still be ready for Opening Day. This one felt like a bullet dodged but the gun still had ammo and was still aimed at Texas.

A day later, Bradford experienced elbow soreness, though an MRI showed no structural damage. While it was a torso injury last season that kept the young lefty out of action, anytime a pitcher feels elbow discomfort, caution takes precedence. 

In this case, the team announced that Bradford will miss Opening Day and that he will be shut down for at least four weeks. The hope now is that Bradford’s time off prevents him from damaging his elbow so that he can pitch for Texas a month or so into the season, but when it comes to pitchers and elbows, it’s a dicey proposition to give timelines.

A couple of days after the Bradford news, Gray was hit by a comebacker that left the bat at 106 MPH, breaking his wrist. This one was the most certain of the injuries as Gray will be out for at least six weeks and potentially more if his wrist needs to be surgically repaired. 

Depending on the recovery afterward, it would not be unrealistic to expect mid-summer as a potential return date for Gray. What is known is the Rangers will be without Gray for a significant chunk of the final season of his four-year contract, one that has seen him hit the injured list each year.

With all the injuries that have very quickly mounted for the Rangers, they will have to test their depth and evaluate the readiness of their top pitching prospects. The Rangers are not short of options for the starting rotation, but the pressure to perform in a merit-based system for those options has just increased exponentially as being eased into the rotation may no longer be an option.

Here’s a look at where the Rangers can turn as three of their expected five-man rotation were dinged up in a manner of days, with two of them expected to be missed for an extended period:

The most obvious answer would be inserting former Vanderbilt standouts Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker into the rotation to start the year. Both have been stretched out as starters and both have had a cup of coffee in the big leagues after making their debuts last year. 

Whereas Rocker came into spring with the most buzz, Leiter has certainly been more impressive at camp this spring, tossing 14.2 innings over five games with a 3.07 ERA after developing a new changeup grip for his arsenal. 

Rocker, meanwhile, who appeared to have surpassed Leiter in the pecking order after a standout season in the minors and a great showing in the big leagues last September, has had to make a few trips to the backfields to work on mechanical adjustments and looked ticketed for Round Rock before the rash of injuries. 

With two spots suddenly open, and potentially more, both of the former first-round picks appear near the top of the list to slot into the rotation.

Dane Dunning is on the 40-man roster and, as the Rangers’ Pitcher of the Year in 2023, he certainly has the skins on the wall to be stretched out and put into the rotation. However, Texas seems to like the idea of Dunning holding the long man, innings eater role from the bullpen.

Non-roster invitees Adrian Houser and Patrick Murphy have performed well, and they will continue to get looks in the final days of camp. Houser has pitched to a 1.69 ERA over 10.2 innings through five games, while Murphy has pitched 10 scoreless innings over six games. 

Murphy perhaps has more potential as a reliever if the Rangers do reinsert Dunning into the rotation, while Houser has more experience as a starter and could be held onto to eat innings before Bradford or Gray returns. Given the state of the pitching staff, all options are on the table.

Texas was a bit more frugal with spending this winter, and they are likely to be reluctant to add to the payroll as they bump up against the luxury tax threshold, but the recent developments could cause them to look outside camp for options, especially if they’re not happy with the internal options. 

Former Rangers starters Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson are still available and would be a welcome sight in Arlington, but a reunion would depend on how willing they are to return for cheap. At this point, though, with how well some of the internal candidates have performed, a free agent signing might just augment the depth of the pitching staff so there are no guarantees.

The overall options are plentiful, more so than last year, but less so than they were just a week ago. It’s safe to say the Rangers weren’t counting on needing to pull from their accumulated depth to this extent this soon. 

There is still a week and a half until the season starts, which means the above options have maybe a few more chances at camp to argue their case to be in the rotation. How Texas’ pitching staff holds up over the first month of the season could go a long way in determining their fate this year.

Do you think the Rangers will be able to survive the recent pitching injuries? Share your thoughts with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.