Parched communities in the Rio Grande Valley may see some much-needed rain this weekend, thanks to a weather disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that forecasters said could grow into Tropical Storm Danielle.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) tracked on Saturday what it called Potential Tropical Cyclone 4, a steadily growing mass of storms moving northwest toward the Mexican coast at about 13 mph.
Forecasters believed the system, also named Invest 99L, would strengthen sometime on Saturday. Landfall was expected on Saturday south of Brownsville and then push into the Valley.
A tropical storm warning was in effect through Sunday morning for both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border, from Port Mansfield to Brownsville, and from there to Boca de Catan in Mexico.
The NHC explained that a warning means “that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.”
The NHC weather update added that rainfall in that area could range between one to three inches, with isolated areas receiving up to five inches “along the eastern coast of Mexico from the northern portions of the state of Veracruz across the state of Tamaulipas to Nuevo Leon through today.”
So far, the only threat to South Texas was a wet weekend.
“Right now, the biggest threat to South Texas is going to be a marginal risk of excessive rainfall,” said Eric Forinash, a forecaster with the National Weather Service in Corpus Christi. ” He added that parts of South Texas may see one to three inches of rain, with the possibility of localized flash flooding in some areas.
Updates also warned of flooding from a storm surge of one to two feet above standard tide levels in the affected coastal areas of northern Mexico and deep South Texas. The dangers from high winds and rip currents would also pose a threat to coastal communities.
“After moving inland,” the NHC explained, “the system is expected to weaken rapidly and dissipate within 48 hours near the Texas/Mexico border.”
Communities in Cameron and Willacy counties ramped up preparations. The cities of Weslaco, Mercedes and Pharr, among other communities, distributed sandbags Saturday morning.
The University of Texas-Rio Grande Valley planned to suspend some of its bus services between Brownsville and McAllen on Saturday and Sunday.
Brownsville planned to close its COVID-19 vaccination clinic on Saturday.
The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has been relatively quiet so far. But forecasters still expect an above-normal season, according to an annual mid-season update issued in early August by the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.
It called for 14-20 named storms, of which six to 10 could become hurricanes. Of those, three to five could become major hurricanes.
So far, the Atlantic season has seen at least three named storms — Alex, Bonnie and Colin — and no hurricanes. However, Bonnie crossed Central America, entered the Pacific and strengthened into a Category 3 hurricane. But it quickly weakened as it moved north.
An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
Brian Kirkpatrick contributed to this report.