Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. says he can win Texas, but he’s running a distant third in statewide polling.
Though it’s nearly impossible for him to win Texas’ 40 electoral votes, Kennedy’s positions on issues that are important to Texans could determine whether he siphons more votes from President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump.
Some of his top campaign positions appeal to — or antagonize — supporters of both candidates.
I interviewed Kennedy before his speech at last month’s EarthX environmental gathering in Dallas. Later that night, he was featured at a reception given by Dallas businessman Trammell Crow.
“We can win Texas,” Kennedy told me. “All I have to do is get to 33%.”
No third-party candidate has won the presidency, and winning Texas — a politically polarized state with few independent voters — presents a daunting challenge.
Another hurdle: Texas has some of the nation’s toughest requirements to get third-party candidates on the ballot.
According to the Texas secretary of state’s office, an independent candidate for president must collect 113,151 signatures from registered voters who did not cast a ballot in the presidential primary for either party. An application with the signatures must be submitted no later than May 13.
Kennedy hasn’t submitted his application, though he says he has 200,000 petition signatures, more than enough to qualify for the November ballot.
“We have a better field operation than any campaign, and it only took us one month to double the number of signatures we needed to get on Texas ballots,” Kennedy said. “We’re gonna be on the ballot here.”
A poll last week by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas paints a different picture of how Texans feel about Kennedy. It shows Trump leading Biden 45% to 36%, with Kennedy well off the pace at 8%. In a hypothetical head-to-head race, Trump leads Biden 48% to 40%.
“There’s certainly no indication that he would be remotely competitive here,” said Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project.
Questions surrounding Kennedy’s campaign have largely been about his role as a potential spoiler. Democrats worry the son of Robert F. Kennedy would take votes from Biden in critical battleground states, including Michigan, where the independent has a polling average topping 8%.
Last month, at least 15 of Kennedy’s relatives publicly backed Biden, a signal they were concerned that his third-party bid could help Trump win.
During my interview with Kennedy, I mentioned both parties were concerned about his potential as a spoiler. He disagreed that Republicans were worried.
“Democrats are calling me a spoiler, but the definition of a spoiler is somebody who can’t win,” he said. “Under that definition, President Biden is the spoiler. … Polls consistently show he cannot beat President Trump, whether I’m in the race or out. They show that I can beat President Trump in a head-to-head race.”
Henson said the Texas poll showed Kennedy is viewed more negatively by Democrats than Republicans. Nearly half of Democrats surveyed viewed Kennedy as “very unfavorable,” compared to 8% of Republicans who had that opinion.
“The idea that he would be a natural home for voters in Texas who would otherwise vote for Biden does not hold up to scrutiny,” Henson said.
Kennedy has taken conservative positions on some high-profile Texas issues, including immigration and border security.
He says he would “shut down the border” to deal with the migrant crisis.
Unlike many Democrats, Kennedy does not support a path to citizenship for the nearly 12 million people in the country without authorization.
“I don’t think any politician should be talking about a path to citizenship for that group of people until we seal the border,” he said. “We owe it to the American public to seal the border first, before we figure out how to handle the problem with that vast influx of immigrants.”
That’s a position embraced by conservatives, not Democratic-leaning voters who may be willing to consider alternatives to Biden.
Abortion rights proponents have criticized Kennedy. In Michigan and Wisconsin, the Reproductive Freedom for All Freedom Fund released an ad last week portraying Kennedy and his running mate, California lawyer Nicole Shanahan, as threats to abortion rights.
Other Kennedy positions could be more acceptable to supporters of Trump. Known for his crusade against vaccines, Kennedy opposes vaccine mandates and questioned the use of such drugs to curb the coronavirus pandemic. Kennedy is a leading figure in a movement that rejects the scientific consensus that vaccines are effective and safe, and that’s helped him build a base with some disgruntled voters.
Still, many of Kennedy’s core campaign issues are considered liberal, and he’s made a career as an environmentalist.
He told me the most critical issues he’s pushing are “how to get young people into housing,” curbing the chronic disease epidemic, ending the debt crisis, stopping corrupt corporate mergers and preventing government officials from lying.
He said he would also end the “toxic polarization” in government.
“President Trump and President Biden can’t deal with it because they feed into it. They’re the product of it,” Kennedy said. “They’re telling each side to hate the other side. I’m the only one that’s looking for the issues that unite Americans rather than focusing on these culture war issues that divide us.”
The unpopularity of Biden and Trump presents an opportunity for a third-party candidate to shine, he said.
“They are literally the least popular people ever to run and nobody wants it, so this is a unique time in history,” Kennedy said.
The presumptive Republican and Democratic nominees may be unpopular choices, but one of them will be president.
As for Kennedy, his impact on that decision is still evolving.
