The late-cycle investment signals the party is taking Texas seriously — a shift from past cycles.
WASHINGTON, D.C., USA — U.S. Senate Democrats are sending millions to Texas in a new round of investments to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced Thursday.
The DSCC will include Texas in a “multimillion dollar” push to fund television ads on behalf of U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Dallas, who is challenging Cruz. The investment will also target Sen. Rick Scott in Florida, the party’s other major flip target. The DSCC declined to further specify the dollar amount going to Texas.
“Senate Democrats are expanding the map and going on offense,” DSCC Chair Sen. Gary Peters said in a statement. “All cycle long the DSCC has been preparing to take advantage of Sens. Cruz and Scott’s damaged standings in their states – and now our efforts in Texas and Florida are accelerating.”
The DSCC named Texas and Florida as its top flip targets earlier this cycle, including Texas in a $79 million ad reservation and funding staff in the state. But the group has so far put protecting its vulnerable incumbents at the top of its to-do list. Democrats need to defend several difficult seats this year in Republican or swing states to maintain their majority.
The investment is a critical sign of the national party’s support for a state whose Democrats have long languished on their own. The DSCC’s inclusion of Texas in its earlier ad reservations and staffing showed potential in Allred’s chances. A later-cycle investment like Thursday’s confirms the party remains committed and is taking Texas seriously — a shift from past cycles.
Texas’ Senate race is also likely to be one of the most expensive in the state’s history. Cruz predicted up to $100 million to $150 million being spent on the race.
The DSCC’s investment could also signal to other groups to put their money in the state. The Senate Majority PAC, the party’s primary super PAC for Senate race, has yet to announce any investments in Texas, though it could still send money as Election Day approaches.
The DSCC and Allred campaign are legally barred from coordinating with super PACs, which do not have campaign contribution maximums. But it’s common on both sides of the aisle for super PACs to take cues from publicly released information from formal party groups or campaigns.
Texas is home to some of the most expensive media markets in the country, and a cash influx for television ads would support a key component of Allred’s campaign strategy. The campaign has focused on blanketing the state with ads to increase his name recognition, especially outside of his home turf in Dallas. Allred was largely unknown outside of Dallas when he first announced his candidacy, while Cruz is one of the most recognized political figures in the country.
Recent polling has shown Allred in a close race against Cruz, including a recent Morning Consult poll putting him one point ahead of Cruz. It was the first major public poll of the cycle putting Allred in the lead. Allred is also the best funded candidate in Texas, repeatedly outraising Cruz and former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 campaign.
Allred and his joint fundraising committee have raised over $41 million as of the end of June with over $10 million in cash on hand. Campaign contributions generally increase exponentially in the third quarter, which will close at the end of September.
“Colin Allred has earned broad support from Texans, and our campaign has clear momentum,” Allred campaign manager Paige Hutchinson said in a statement. “Ted Cruz is weaker and more vulnerable than ever because of his failure to secure the border, his extreme abortion ban that has put women in danger, his efforts to cut Social Security and Medicare and his record of only looking out for himself. ”
Cruz is still a force to be reckoned with. He and his affiliated political action committees have raised over $40 million with over $14 million in cash on hand. He is one of the top fundraisers for the Texas Republican Party and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which has coordinated with his campaign throughout the cycle. He is running an aggressive campaign, not wanting to be caught off guard like in 2018 by O’Rourke’s unexpectedly meteoric rise.
“The National Democrats coming in from their ivory towers in New York. D.C., and California tells Texans all they need to know. Just like them, Colin Allred is nothing more than a radical leftist with a radical record who would destroy Texas and accelerate the decline of America,” a Cruz campaign spokesperson said in a statement.
U.S. Sen. Steve Daines, a Montana Republican who chairs the NRSC, said Cruz was always going to attract Democratic fundraisers to Texas because of the ire he provokes on the left but that should not distract from his impressive operation.
“Ted has been running like he’s five points behind since the day he got in the race, even though he’s been five or 10 points ahead,” Daines said earlier this summer. “That’s exactly the kind of candidate you want to have for senator running for reelection. I’m just very confident Ted Cruz is going to win handily.”
Democrats have a challenging map to maintain the majority this year. The party has a one-seat majority, but several of its seats are vulnerable. Sen. Jon Tester of Montana is up for reelection in a state that voted for former President Donald Trump by 16 points. Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio is running in a state that Trump won by 8 points.
Democrats will also have to defend incumbents in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which are also presidential battlegrounds. Two Democrats-turned-independents, Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema, are also leaving office, opening new vulnerabilities for the party.
One of the DSCC’s key tenets is to protect incumbents first, and it has not indicated it will abandon any of its incumbents to fund flip opportunities, even if Texas has a closer margin than Montana.
But Montana has a considerably smaller media market, and saturating the market with new ads can have diminishing returns. Montana has a population of just over 1 million. Texas, meanwhile, has a population of over 30 million spread out in several distinct media markets.
Philip Letsou, an NRSC spokesperson, said Thursday’s move is “effectively an admission from [Senate Majority Leader] Chuck Schumer and the DSCC that Jon Tester, who is polling very badly, looks like a lost cause.”
“Colin Allred is an extremist who believes it’s racist to secure the border. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is a socialist who was fired from her job in Congress after one term because she was so radical. Allred and Mucarsel-Powell are bad fits for Florida and Texas, and voters will reject them,” Letsou said in a statement.
This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune at https://www.texastribune.org/2024/09/26/senate-democrats-colin-allred-texas-florida/.
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