Ted Cruz’s Chances of Keeping Texas Senate Seat See Surge Ahead of Two-Week Mark

Ted Cruz got a breath of fresh air in the latest survey regarding Texas‘ Senate elections, expanding his lead over Democratic challenger Colin Allred as early voting begins in the state and the election day at the 15-day mark.

The new survey, conducted by ActiVote among 400 likely voters between October 1 and 16, shows the incumbent ahead by 5.6 percentage points: He gets 52.8% of the support compared to Allred’s 47.2%.

The incumbent dominated among several demographics, especially people aged 30 and over, men, White people, and low-income likely voters. Concretely, Cruz holds between 54 and 57% of the support with the three age groups 30 and over: 30-49, 50-64 and 65 and over.

He also has 56% of the support among men, compared to 50% from women, and 63% from low-income groups. The figure drops to 52% among middle-income voters and to 49% with high-income respondents.

Looking at ethnic groups, Cruz dominates among White voters, getting almost two-thirds of the support (64%) while trailing with Blacks and Latinos. Allred gets 70% of the votes in the former category and 62% in the latter.

The overall gap is welcome news for Cruz, considering the race has become much closer than what was expected months ago. In fact, the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan forecaster, recently changed its categorization of the race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican,” a significant shift marking Allred’s improved chances.

This was further illustrated by some recent polls showing the Democrat within the margin of error and even ahead in a mid-September survey. The study published before the ActiVote one also showed a close contest: Conducted among 2,048 likely voters between October 6 and 15, it showed Cruz ahead by just one point, 46% to 45%.

However, no study shows the potential impact of the debate between the candidates, which took place on October 15. There, both candidates predictably claimed they ended up on top after the often-heated exchange, where they called each other “extremist” and sought to present themselves as the best option for the state.

Speaking from the WFAA studio in Dallas, Allred blasted his opponent for, among other things, rejecting a bipartisan border security bill and “standing in the way of efforts to lower prescription drug costs, raise wages and lower prices across the board.” Cruz, on his end focused on Allred’s stance on the Israel-Gaza war and said he has “supported men playing in women’s sports.”

Allred announced in early October that his campaign raised more than $30 million over the last three months, outpacing Cruz, who raised around $21 million during the same period.

Both candidates have raised $132 million collectively since the start of the race, which is expected to be one of the most expensive Texas Senate races in the Lone Star state’s history.