AUSTIN (KXAN) — It’s a question a lot of you have been asking us as we approach the Total Solar Eclipse on April 8. “Will clouds cover the rare phenomenon?” While it’s too early to forecast the weather that day, we can look back at climatology to figure out the areas most likely to be cloud-free on the day.
KXAN Meteorologist Nick Bannin spoke with Brian Brettschneider, a Climate Scientist at the National Weather Service in Anchorage, Alaska who gathered data on climatology in Texas in early April.
Meteorologist Nick Bannin: Brian, you recently analyzed the typical cloud cover in the path of the eclipse during the first half of April, here in Texas, what can you tell us?
Brian Brettschneider, Climate Scientist, NWS Anchorage: It looks pretty good based on climatology and history. And, you know, generally the farther south and west you go across the entire path of the eclipse, the better chance you have of having clear skies and an opportunity to view the eclipse unobstructed.
Bannin: Now, that map you made, it’s got 40%-50% pretty common throughout Texas, what do those numbers actually mean? Any clouds? No clouds? Even a few clouds could still obstruct the eclipse.
Brettschneider: So I looked at data since 1979, so you know, basically 43-44 years of data, and looked at each hour in the time that the eclipse is going to occur. So I think a four hour period. So it’s just averaging, you know, hundreds of individual observations and identifying what the average was for all of those. So, it’s not saying that, you know, there’ll be 50% cloud coverage on April 8, saying that, you know, 40-50 or so percent of the time, it’s obstructed by clouds. But there’s also degrees of cloud cover, you know, so a thunderstorm is a different type of cloud cover than kind of a high, thin cloud, but in some respects, [they] are treated the same. So it is an important caveat.
Bannin: So the 40 to 50%, is saying that 40 to 50% of the time between noon and four in the first half of April, there are some clouds?
Brettschneider: Correct and… another way of thinking about it is, you know, if you were in space, if you were in a satellite, you know, would you be able to see the ground? So much of this data is assimilated into the models, based on the satellite view on those days, and on those times. So, so it’s kind of a reverse way of thinking about it.
Bannin: The time of the eclipse being in the early afternoon has got to help our chances, because we get so many low clouds, fog, stratus, in the morning, that tries to burn off later in the day. That should bode well for us in the afternoon.
Brettschneider: Certainly the time of the day is favorable. You’re going to have less of that low stratus, fog, of course, at the expense of more cumulus and diurnal, temperature-driven clouds that that are going to be more common later in the day