HOUSTON (KXAN) — The top Republican leaders in Texas are handing out endorsements ahead of the primary election, and likely GOP voters recently shared some insight about whose support matters more to them when they’re considering which candidates to cast a ballot for next month.
Polling results released Tuesday by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston showed Gov. Greg Abbott having more sway than Attorney General Ken Paxton, as the two men have sometimes had conflicting preferences in races across the state. However, the findings revealed those same voters would be much more influenced by what former President Donald Trump thinks about their primary choices.
During a period between Jan. 11-24, pollsters asked a group of 1,500 registered Texas voters whether eight current or former elected leaders would affect their likelihood of voting for candidates, specifically in Texas Republican House primary races. These are expected to be some of the most contentious because of intraparty fighting over Paxton’s impeachment and Abbott’s continued push for school choice measures, like education savings accounts.
According to the poll, Abbott’s endorsement would hold the most influence over these likely voters compared to any of the other Texas leaders listed. The results showed 64% would be more likely to support a candidate backed by the governor, while 22% said Abbott’s support of someone would have no effect on their thinking. Meanwhile, 14% said the governor’s endorsement would make them less likely to vote for a candidate.
When pollsters asked about whom Paxton supported in a House primary race, 40% of the respondents said they’d be more likely to vote for that person. Forty-one percent said the attorney general’s endorsement would have no effect on them, while 19% said Paxton’s backing would make them less likely to vote for that candidate.
The University of Houston poll found Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan having the least amount of sway among the likely primary voters. Only 9% said a Phelan endorsement would make them more likely to vote for that candidate, while 68% said the Beaumont Republican would have no effect on their choices.
The results, though, showed an endorsement from former President Trump having the biggest impact on these voters’ preferences. The poll found 70% would be more likely to vote for a candidate who has Trump’s support compared to those who said it would have no effect (18%) or make them less likely (12%) to vote for that candidate.
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How certain issues may affect voters’ preferences
The pollsters also sought to learn whether certain legislative votes would impact people’s likelihood of supporting an incumbent Texas House member in the Republican primary.
The five issues presented to the voters included these options:
- Voted against school choice/voucher legislation.
- Voted for Paxton articles of impeachment.
- Plans to vote against Dade Phelan for Speaker in 2025.
- Voted for legislation to make illegal immigration a crime.
- Voted for legislation banning transgender girls from playing on girls’ sports teams.
The results showed possible trouble for incumbents who either voted against school vouchers or supported Paxton’s impeachment last year. Sixty percent of the voters said they’d be less likely to vote for an incumbent House member in the Republican primary if they voted against school choice legislation, while 46% said they’d be less likely to do the same for an incumbent who supported the Paxton impeachment.
On the flip side, voters looked at incumbents much more favorably who voted for legislation to make crossing the border illegally a crime and supported restrictions for transgender athletes.
The poll showed nearly nine out of 10 likely Republican primary voters would be more likely to cast a ballot for a House incumbent who voted for legislation to make illegal immigration a state crime (86%) and to ban transgender girls from playing on girls’ sports teams in Texas high schools and middle schools (85%). Only 7% and 8%, respectively, indicated they’d be less likely to vote for an incumbent who cast these votes.
Early voting in the primaries begins on Feb. 20 and runs through March 1. Election Day is March 5. The deadline to apply for a ballot by mail, if you are disabled or aged 65 or older, is Feb. 23.