The Texas election is more competitive. Hispanic voters to play a key role
A series of political polls show Texas has a tightening race in November.
The Texas Politics Project shows former President Trump up on Vice President Harris by 5%, The Hill and Emerson University has him up by 4%, the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation has him up by 6%.
All closer than this Republican-dominated state usually sees. In 2020, Trump won the state by roughly 5.5% against now-President Joe Biden.
The top-of-the-ticket races get even closer when it comes to Senator Ted Cruz vs. Congressman Colin Allred. The Hill and Emerson have Sen. Cruz up by four, the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation has Cruz up by three, and Morning Consult has Allred up by one.
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While political experts suggest you should not take one poll as gospel, one can see the trend of the race by looking at several surveys.
“The sleeping giant is awake and the sleeping giant is determinative of who will win these races,” said Jason Villalba, a former Republican state representative and now the chair of the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation.
Villalba’s latest poll shows Trump up six but Cruz only up three. The difference, according to Villalba, is Trump’s overperformance among Texas Hispanic voters.
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“The unifying theme is generally they’re immigrants into the country. They’re family-centric. They’re conservative in the kitchen table issues but they’re not necessarily conservative in what we’d consider political issues. So guns and abortion aren’t going to be issues that resonate, but education and healthcare are,” said Villalba.
If Harris can cut away Trump’s Hispanic support, she can bring the race closer, he said. Congressman Allred can pull off an upset, per Villalba.